Toronto Raptors at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints25
- Brandon IngramAssists5
- RJ BarrettRebounds7
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints28
- Dejounte MurrayAssists6
- Yves MissiRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–122
- Q46.6Jordan Hawkins defensive rebound108–122
- Q47.0Derik Queen blocks Trayce Jackson-Davis 's 2-foot layup108–122
- Q48.2Jamal Shead offensive rebound108–122
- Q49.4Derik Queen blocks Trayce Jackson-Davis 's 3-foot hook shot108–122
- Q413.4Derik Queen lost ball turnover (Alijah Martin steals)108–122
- Q427.5Gradey Dick makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)111–122
- Q427.5Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound108–122
- Q427.5Alijah Martin misses free throw 2 of 2108–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q232.5Dejounte Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Saddiq Bey assists)TOR 56 – 60 NO · NO 48% → 57% +9NO 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q311:14RJ Barrett makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)TOR 61 – 64 NO · TOR 37% → 45% +9TOR 37% → 45%+9 pts
- Q39:54Herbert Jones makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)TOR 65 – 69 NO · NO 49% → 58% +9NO 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q411:50Immanuel Quickley makes 27-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 86 – 93 NO · TOR 17% → 26% +9TOR 17% → 26%+9 pts
- Q410:15Jamison Battle makes 22-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 93 – 95 NO · TOR 31% → 44% +13TOR 31% → 44%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -2.5
- ML TOR -142 / NO +120
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -0.5
- TOR 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 48.2%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -129
- NO +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 119.0 – 116.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1395 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +36 | +56 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +12 Elo | NO 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 52.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30113.5 | Points scored | 115.516th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 120.227th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −4.723rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 112.021st of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 116.526th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.2 | Pace | 102.411th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 6th of 3019–12 | Road vs home | 12–2125th of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 19th of 301478 | Elo rating | 139523rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–32 | 36–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 17–20 | 10–3 |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 26–27 |
| Overs–unders | 24–40 | 35–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–2 NO in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.