Toronto Raptors at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints25
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists6
- RJ BarrettRebounds6
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints29
- Amen ThompsonAssists6
- Alperen SengunRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–113
- Q413.7Alijah Martin lost ball turnover (Aaron Holiday steals)99–113
- Q420.6Jonathan Mogbo defensive rebound99–113
- Q424.0Jeff Green misses 26-foot three point jumper99–113
- Q444.8Gradey Dick makes two point shot (Jonathan Mogbo assists)99–113
- Q451.4Dorian Finney-Smith lost ball turnover (Jonathan Mogbo steals)97–113
- Q41:14Gradey Dick makes free throw 2 of 297–113
- Q41:14Gradey Dick makes free throw 1 of 296–113
- Q41:14Jeff Green personal foul95–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:25RJ Barrett makes 23-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 45 – 44 HOU · TOR 35% → 42% +7TOR 35% → 42%+7 pts
- Q34:32Jamison Battle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 70 – 73 HOU · TOR 23% → 32% +9TOR 23% → 32%+9 pts
- Q32:02Dorian Finney-Smith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Clint Capela assists)TOR 74 – 82 HOU · HOU 75% → 83% +8HOU 75% → 83%+8 pts
- Q31:05Ja'Kobe Walter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)TOR 79 – 84 HOU · TOR 17% → 25% +8TOR 17% → 25%+8 pts
- Q48:44Amen Thompson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)TOR 87 – 96 HOU · HOU 81% → 89% +8HOU 81% → 89%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -4.5
- ML TOR +160 / HOU -192
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -3
- HOU 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 61.5%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -171
- TOR +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 108.0 – 112.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | −8 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +81 Elo | HOU 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 63.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30113.7 | Points scored | 114.620th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 109.94th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +4.76th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 115.39th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 110.56th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.3 | Pace | 98.029th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 5th of 3019–11 | Road vs home | 21–84th of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 19th of 301487 | Elo rating | 156110th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–31 | 28–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–20 | 23–33 |
| Underdog | 15–11 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 24–39 | 28–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–4 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.