Golden State Warriors at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Brandin PodziemskiPoints15
- Draymond GreenAssists6
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds6
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints23
- Daniss JenkinsAssists8
- Daniss JenkinsRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–115
- Q42.1shot clock turnover101–115
- Q426.2Will Richard makes running layup (Gary Payton II assists)101–115
- Q429.0Daniss Jenkins lost ball turnover (Will Richard steals)99–115
- Q448.6Gary Payton II makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot (Pat Spencer assists)99–115
- Q450.4Pat Spencer offensive rebound97–115
- Q452.5Will Richard misses 24-foot three point jumper97–115
- Q41:10Warriors defensive team rebound97–115
- Q41:11Chaz Lanier misses 26-foot three point jumper97–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:04Brandin Podziemski makes 25-foot three point jumper (Gary Payton II assists)GS 35 – 27 DET · GS 47% → 54% +7GS 47% → 54%+7 pts
- Q29:27LJ Cryer makes 27-foot three pointerGS 38 – 29 DET · GS 50% → 57% +7GS 50% → 57%+7 pts
- Q28:05De'Anthony Melton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 43 – 34 DET · GS 50% → 58% +8GS 50% → 58%+8 pts
- Q23:02Duncan Robinson makes 24-foot running jump shot (Caris LeVert assists)GS 46 – 49 DET · DET 63% → 71% +8DET 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q231.9Duncan Robinson makes 26-foot three pointer (Paul Reed assists)GS 50 – 55 DET · DET 68% → 75% +7DET 68% → 75%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DET -6.5
- ML GS +195 / DET -238
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -5
- DET 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- DET: Elo 69.1%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- DET -208
- GS +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 106.5 – 113.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1607 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −26 | +9 | GS: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +139 Elo | DET 69.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 71.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 70.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 67.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 117.48th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 109.73rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +7.82nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 115.110th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 107.52nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.2 | Pace | 101.614th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 20th of 3014–21 | Road vs home | 25–83rd of 30 |
| 6th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 148329th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Elo rating | 16076th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–38 | 35–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 20–24 | 25–32 |
| Underdog | 11–14 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders | 42–27 | 31–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 4–1 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.