Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints24
- Caris LeVertAssists6
- Jalen DurenRebounds11
Wizards- Tristan VukcevicPoints21
- Bub CarringtonAssists4
- Sharife CooperRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–95
- Q410.3Tolu Smith defensive rebound117–95
- Q414.2Jaden Hardy misses 27-foot three point jumper117–95
- Q426.5Jamir Watkins defensive rebound117–95
- Q427.5Jamir Watkins blocks Tolu Smith 's 2-foot two point shot117–95
- Q428.0Tolu Smith offensive rebound117–95
- Q429.5Kevin Huerter misses layup117–95
- Q452.1Sharife Cooper bad pass
turnover (Chaz Lanier steals)117–95
- Q453.7Sharife Cooper defensive rebound117–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:51Will Riley makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bub Carrington assists)DET 50 – 45 WSH · WSH 7% → 10% +3WSH 7% → 10%+3 pts
- Q33:18Tre Johnson makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotDET 81 – 73 WSH · WSH 4% → 8% +3WSH 4% → 8%+3 pts
- Q32:42Jaden Hardy makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Gill assists)DET 82 – 76 WSH · WSH 6% → 11% +4WSH 6% → 11%+4 pts
- Q32:26Paul Reed makes 2-foot layup (Caris LeVert assists)DET 84 – 76 WSH · DET 89% → 92% +3DET 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q31:36Daniss Jenkins makes 28-foot three point jumper (Ronald Holland II assists)DET 87 – 76 WSH · DET 92% → 96% +3DET 92% → 96%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- DET -14.5
- ML DET -1200 / WSH +750
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -11
- DET 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- DET: Elo 85.3%, market 88.7%
- Fair odds
- DET -785
- WSH +785 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 123.0 – 108.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1603 | 1260 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | −6 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Missing Trae Young −42 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +306 Elo | DET 85.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 88.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 88.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 88.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 112.825th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.9 | Points allowed | 123.829th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.5 | Margin | −11.030th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.1 | Offense rating | 108.826th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.6 | Defense rating | 119.429th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.6 | Pace | 103.27th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 0–1029th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3023–11 | Road vs home | 11–2428th of 30 |
| 29th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 15078th of 30 |
| 6th of 301603 | Elo rating | 126030th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−6 Elo- Trae Young right quad contusion−42 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–34 | 29–39 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–32 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 27–36 |
| Overs–unders | 31–37 | 38–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–4 WSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.
- Mar 17DET 130 @ WSH 117Picked DET 92%Hit
- Feb 5WSH 126 @ DET 117Picked DET 89%Miss
- Nov 10WSH 135 @ DET 137Picked DET 81%Hit
- Mar 13WSH 129 @ DET 125Picked DET 85%Miss
- Mar 11WSH 103 @ DET 123Picked DET 88%Hit
- Nov 17DET 124 @ WSH 104Picked DET 64%Hit
- Mar 29DET 96 @ WSH 87Picked WSH 62%Miss
- Jan 27WSH 118 @ DET 104Picked DET 52%Miss