Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- MarJon BeauchampPoints17
- Quentin GrimesAssists5
- Justin EdwardsRebounds9
Pistons- Duncan RobinsonPoints19
- Cade CunninghamAssists13
- Jalen DurenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–131
- Q413.8Dalen Terry makes driving layup109–131
- Q420.8Dalen Terry defensive rebound107–131
- Q425.2Chaz Lanier misses 23-foot three point jumper107–131
- Q427.0Paul Reed offensive rebound107–131
- Q429.9Dalen Terry blocks Chaz Lanier 's 1-foot driving layup107–131
- Q449.0Pistons defensive team rebound107–131
- Q449.0Paul Reed blocks Justin Edwards's tip shot107–131
- Q449.0Justin Edwards offensive rebound107–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:11Cameron Payne makes 26-foot three pointerPHI 26 – 31 DET · PHI 7% → 9% +3PHI 7% → 9%+3 pts
- Q23:33Duncan Robinson makes 29-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)PHI 52 – 62 DET · DET 91% → 94% +3DET 91% → 94%+3 pts
- Q254.6Quentin Grimes makes 16-foot step back jumpshotPHI 60 – 64 DET · PHI 10% → 13% +3PHI 10% → 13%+3 pts
- Q229.1Tobias Harris makes running layup (Marcus Sasser assists)PHI 60 – 66 DET · DET 87% → 90% +3DET 87% → 90%+3 pts
- Q310:40Quentin Grimes makes 27-foot three pointerPHI 63 – 71 DET · PHI 5% → 8% +3PHI 5% → 8%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- DET -14.5
- ML PHI +675 / DET -1050
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -10.5
- DET 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- DET: Elo 84.3%, market 87.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -708
- PHI +708 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 105.0 – 119.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1607 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −126 | +26 | PHI: Missing Andre Drummond −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +292 Elo | DET 84.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 82.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 83.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 87.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 117.010th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 109.63rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +7.42nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 114.612th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 107.32nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.3 | Pace | 101.714th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 11th of 3017–14 | Road vs home | 23–83rd of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149426th of 30 |
| 18th of 301503 | Elo rating | 16077th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−126 Elo- Andre Drummond back spasms−6 Elo
Pistons
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–29 | 33–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–14 | 23–29 |
| Underdog | 15–15 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders | 34–31 | 27–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–4 DET in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Nov 14PHI 105 @ DET 114Picked DET 52%Hit
- Nov 9DET 111 @ PHI 108Picked DET 64%Hit
- Feb 7PHI 112 @ DET 125Picked PHI 67%Miss
- Nov 30PHI 111 @ DET 96Picked PHI 53%Hit
- Oct 30DET 105 @ PHI 95Picked PHI 62%Miss
- Apr 9DET 102 @ PHI 120Picked PHI 82%Hit
- Dec 15DET 92 @ PHI 124Picked PHI 87%Hit
- Dec 13PHI 129 @ DET 111Picked PHI 80%Hit