Memphis Grizzlies at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Ty JeromePoints26
- Ty JeromeAssists8
- Cedric CowardRebounds16
76ers- Cameron PaynePoints32
- Cameron PayneAssists10
- Kelly Oubre Jr.Rebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–139
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–139
- Q421.2Rayan Rupert makes 3-foot pullup jump shot (Cam Spencer assists)129–139
- Q429.0Trendon Watford makes two point shot (Cameron Payne assists)127–139
- Q433.7Dalen Terry defensive rebound127–137
- Q434.5Rayan Rupert misses tip shot127–137
- Q434.5Rayan Rupert offensive rebound127–137
- Q438.2Cedric Coward misses running layup127–137
- Q443.3Cedric Coward defensive rebound127–137
- Q446.1Dalen Terry misses 23-foot three point jumper127–137
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:08Taylor Hendricks makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ty Jerome assists)MEM 109 – 100 PHI · MEM 69% → 79% +10MEM 69% → 79%+10 pts
- Q410:53Cameron Payne makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotMEM 109 – 103 PHI · PHI 20% → 31% +10PHI 20% → 31%+10 pts
- Q410:40Jaylen Wells makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ty Jerome assists)MEM 112 – 103 PHI · MEM 69% → 80% +11MEM 69% → 80%+11 pts
- Q49:34Ty Jerome makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotMEM 115 – 107 PHI · MEM 67% → 78% +12MEM 67% → 78%+12 pts
- Q46:19Cameron Payne makes 28-foot running pullup jump shotMEM 115 – 119 PHI · PHI 60% → 76% +15PHI 60% → 76%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -4.5
- ML MEM +160 / PHI -192
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- PHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 49.5%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -171
- MEM +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 112.5 – 117.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | PHI and MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −31 | −133 | MEM: Missing Brandon Clarke −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +3 Elo | MEM 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 115.614th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30118.0 | Points allowed | 116.118th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.3 | Margin | −0.519th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 112.716th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 113.117th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.4 | Pace | 101.318th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3011–20 | Road vs home | 17–1617th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 21st of 301430 | Elo rating | 149318th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−31 Elo- Brandon Clarke right calf strain−6 Elo
76ers
−133 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–33 | 35–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–9 | 20–14 |
| Underdog | 20–24 | 15–15 |
| Overs–unders | 31–32 | 33–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 3–2 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.