Memphis Grizzlies at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Javon SmallPoints23
- Cam SpencerAssists5
- DeJon JarreauRebounds7
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints30
- Cade CunninghamAssists15
- Jalen DurenRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–126
- Q49.0shot clock turnover110–126
- Q433.1Javon Small makes 23-foot running jump shot (DeJon Jarreau assists)110–126
- Q439.3DeJon Jarreau defensive rebound107–126
- Q443.0Caris LeVert misses 23-foot three point jumper107–126
- Q459.0Kevin Huerter defensive rebound107–126
- Q41:01Tyler Burton misses free throw 2 of 2107–126
- Q41:01Tyler Burton makes free throw 1 of 2107–126
- Q41:01Paul Reed shooting foul106–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:13Ty Jerome makes 25-foot three pointerMEM 44 – 39 DET · MEM 17% → 22% +5MEM 17% → 22%+5 pts
- Q28:23Kevin Huerter makes 25-foot running jump shot (Daniss Jenkins assists)MEM 44 – 42 DET · DET 77% → 83% +5DET 77% → 83%+5 pts
- Q24:41Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyler Burton assists)MEM 51 – 53 DET · MEM 9% → 13% +4MEM 9% → 13%+4 pts
- Q39:40Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)MEM 70 – 75 DET · MEM 7% → 10% +4MEM 7% → 10%+4 pts
- Q38:47Marcus Sasser makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)MEM 72 – 78 DET · DET 86% → 91% +5DET 86% → 91%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- DET -16.5
- ML MEM +900 / DET -1600
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -9
- DET 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.8 pts
- DET: Elo 80.6%, market 90.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -941
- MEM +941 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 108.5 – 125.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1612 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | DET and MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +21 | +18 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +247 Elo | DET 80.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 86.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 85.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 90.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 117.210th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.3 | Points allowed | 109.63rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.5 | Margin | +7.62nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 114.712th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 107.22nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.5 | Pace | 101.714th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3011–21 | Road vs home | 24–83rd of 30 |
| 25th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149426th of 30 |
| 21st of 301411 | Elo rating | 16126th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–35 | 34–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–9 | 24–29 |
| Underdog | 20–26 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders | 32–33 | 28–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 5–1 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.