Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Khris MiddletonPoints35
- Cooper FlaggAssists7
- Daniel GaffordRebounds14
Grizzlies- Jaylen WellsPoints23
- Javon SmallAssists9
- Taylor HendricksRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–112
- Q47.1Javon Small makes 25-foot three pointer (Taylor Hendricks assists)120–112
- Q412.2Taylor Hendricks offensive rebound120–109
- Q412.2GG Jackson misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot120–109
- Q422.0Brandon Williams makes 2-foot two point shot (Dwight Powell assists)120–109
- Q443.5Taylor Hendricks makes 23-foot three point jumper (GG Jackson assists)118–109
- Q453.5Rayan Rupert enters the game for Olivier-Maxence Prosper118–106
- Q453.5Ryan Nembhard out of bounds bad pass turnover118–106
- Q41:06GG Jackson makes two point shot118–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:08Javon Small makes 27-foot three pointerDAL 69 – 62 MEM · MEM 15% → 21% +6MEM 15% → 21%+6 pts
- Q34:27Taylor Hendricks makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jahmai Mashack assists)DAL 82 – 74 MEM · MEM 11% → 17% +6MEM 11% → 17%+6 pts
- Q32:06GG Jackson makes driving layupDAL 84 – 82 MEM · MEM 27% → 34% +7MEM 27% → 34%+7 pts
- Q411:45Khris Middleton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ryan Nembhard assists)DAL 89 – 84 MEM · DAL 66% → 77% +11DAL 66% → 77%+11 pts
- Q411:20Khris Middleton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ryan Nembhard assists)DAL 92 – 84 MEM · DAL 77% → 85% +9DAL 77% → 85%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -5.5
- ML DAL -218 / MEM +180
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -0.5
- DAL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.5 pts
- DAL: Elo 51.3%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- DAL -192
- MEM +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 122.5 – 117.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1365 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −4 | −103 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Cam Spencer −24, Cedric Coward −19, Brandon Clarke −18 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +9 Elo | DAL 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 61.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 115.912th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30117.8 | Points allowed | 118.324th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.9 | Margin | −2.420th of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.5 | Offense rating | 111.522nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 113.919th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.3 | Pace | 103.55th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 27th of 307–24 | Road vs home | 11–1925th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149623rd of 30 |
| 26th of 301365 | Elo rating | 141921st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−103 Elo- Cam Spencer sore lower back−24 Elo
- Cedric Coward right knee injury−19 Elo
- Brandon Clarke strained right calf−18 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–37 | 30–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–14 | 10–9 |
| Underdog | 21–23 | 20–25 |
| Overs–unders | 27–38 | 32–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–8 MEM in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Feb 27MEM 124 @ DAL 105Picked DAL 64%Miss
- Nov 22MEM 102 @ DAL 96Picked MEM 51%Hit
- Nov 7DAL 104 @ MEM 118Picked MEM 61%Hit
- Apr 13DAL 97 @ MEM 132Picked DAL 55%Miss
- Mar 7MEM 122 @ DAL 111Picked MEM 78%Hit
- Jan 6DAL 104 @ MEM 119Picked MEM 62%Hit
- Dec 3MEM 116 @ DAL 121Picked DAL 63%Hit
- Jan 9MEM 120 @ DAL 103Picked DAL 74%Miss