Detroit Pistons at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints33
- Cade CunninghamAssists9
- Jalen DurenRebounds11
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints34
- Scottie BarnesAssists8
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–119
- Q40.1Brandon Ingram lost ball turnover (Ausar Thompson steals)108–119
- Q40.6Cade Cunningham bad pass
turnover (Scottie Barnes steals)108–119
- Q47.7RJ Barrett makes dunk (Scottie Barnes assists)108–119
- Q412.1Jalen Duren makes dunk (Cade Cunningham assists)108–117
- Q417.6Jakob Poeltl makes free throw 2 of 2106–117
- Q417.6Raptors offensive team rebound106–116
- Q417.6Jakob Poeltl misses free throw 1 of 2106–116
- Q417.6Cade Cunningham personal foul106–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:59Cade Cunningham makes 25-foot three pointerDET 75 – 80 TOR · DET 29% → 38% +9DET 29% → 38%+9 pts
- Q34:39RJ Barrett makes 25-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)DET 77 – 85 TOR · TOR 63% → 72% +10TOR 63% → 72%+10 pts
- Q44:01Cade Cunningham makes 1-foot running dunk (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 99 – 104 TOR · DET 12% → 20% +9DET 12% → 20%+9 pts
- Q43:13Brandon Ingram makes 25-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)DET 99 – 107 TOR · TOR 83% → 94% +11TOR 83% → 94%+11 pts
- Q42:18Tobias Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 104 – 109 TOR · DET 3% → 13% +9DET 3% → 13%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DET -3.5
- ML DET -155 / TOR +130
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -3.5
- DET 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- DET: Elo 64.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -140
- TOR +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 114.0 – 110.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1616 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +34 | +35 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +104 Elo | DET 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 60.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 113.522nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 111.97th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.7 | Margin | +1.613th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.9 | Offense rating | 112.619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.3 | Defense rating | 111.08th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.7 | Pace | 100.221st of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3022–10 | Road vs home | 18–1617th of 30 |
| 27th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 6th of 301616 | Elo rating | 147619th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–32 | 33–33 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–30 | 18–21 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 29–37 | 25–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 7–1 TOR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Feb 11DET 113 @ TOR 95Picked TOR 51%Miss
- Apr 4DET 117 @ TOR 105Picked DET 80%Hit
- Jan 11TOR 114 @ DET 123Picked DET 65%Hit
- Nov 25TOR 100 @ DET 102Picked DET 58%Hit
- Nov 15DET 99 @ TOR 95Picked DET 56%Hit
- Mar 13TOR 104 @ DET 113Picked DET 64%Hit
- Dec 30TOR 127 @ DET 129Picked TOR 60%Miss
- Nov 19DET 113 @ TOR 142Picked TOR 62%Hit