Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints36
- Daniss JenkinsAssists7
- Jalen DurenRebounds11
Wizards- Bub CarringtonPoints30
- Sharife CooperAssists6
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–117
- Q42.8shot clock turnover130–117
- Q427.4Bub Carrington makes 14-foot pullup jump shot130–117
- Q434.3Wizards defensive team rebound130–115
- Q436.0Tobias Harris misses driving floating jump shot130–115
- Q455.5Tristan Vukcevic makes two point shot130–115
- Q459.2Tristan Vukcevic offensive rebound130–113
- Q459.2Jaden Hardy misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot130–113
- Q41:05Jalen Duren makes 2-foot running dunk (Daniss Jenkins assists)130–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:42Jaden Hardy makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamir Watkins assists)DET 32 – 35 WSH · WSH 11% → 15% +4WSH 11% → 15%+4 pts
- Q211:23Daniss Jenkins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)DET 35 – 35 WSH · DET 85% → 89% +4DET 85% → 89%+4 pts
- Q29:34Bub Carrington makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotDET 39 – 43 WSH · WSH 13% → 18% +4WSH 13% → 18%+4 pts
- Q29:18Caris LeVert makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotDET 42 – 43 WSH · DET 82% → 87% +4DET 82% → 87%+4 pts
- Q27:07Javonte Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)DET 49 – 47 WSH · DET 86% → 90% +4DET 86% → 90%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 92%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- DET -19.5
- ML DET -2100 / WSH +1100
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 93%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -14
- DET 91%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- DET: Elo 90.6%, market 92.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -1145
- WSH +1145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 126.5 – 107.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1601 | 1261 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +37 | −14 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Missing Trae Young −49, Alex Sarr −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +394 Elo | DET 90.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 93.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 93.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 92.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 112.725th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.8 | Points allowed | 123.729th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.5 | Margin | −11.030th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.9 | Offense rating | 108.626th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.5 | Defense rating | 119.229th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.6 | Pace | 103.37th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 0–1029th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3022–11 | Road vs home | 11–2328th of 30 |
| 27th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 15058th of 30 |
| 6th of 301601 | Elo rating | 126130th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−14 Elo- Trae Young right quad contusion−49 Elo
- Alex Sarr left toe−7 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–33 | 28–39 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–31 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 26–36 |
| Overs–unders | 30–37 | 37–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 5–4 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.
- Feb 5WSH 126 @ DET 117Picked DET 89%Miss
- Nov 10WSH 135 @ DET 137Picked DET 81%Hit
- Mar 13WSH 129 @ DET 125Picked DET 85%Miss
- Mar 11WSH 103 @ DET 123Picked DET 88%Hit
- Nov 17DET 124 @ WSH 104Picked DET 64%Hit
- Mar 29DET 96 @ WSH 87Picked WSH 62%Miss
- Jan 27WSH 118 @ DET 104Picked DET 52%Miss
- Jan 15DET 129 @ WSH 117Picked WSH 66%Miss