Atlanta Hawks at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerPoints21
- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerAssists4
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds8
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints25
- Alperen SengunAssists10
- Tari EasonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–117
- Q413.9shot clock turnover95–117
- Q438.5Keaton Wallace out of bounds bad pass turnover95–117
- Q444.6Caleb Houstan defensive rebound95–117
- Q447.0Mouhamed Gueye blocks Clint Capela 's 8-foot driving layup95–117
- Q41:03Caleb Houstan makes 2-foot running dunk (Buddy Hield assists)95–117
- Q41:07Aaron Holiday lost ball turnover (Mouhamed Gueye steals)93–117
- Q41:21Clint Capela offensive rebound93–117
- Q41:24Isaiah Crawford misses 25-foot running jump shot93–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:22Jalen Johnson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)ATL 18 – 13 HOU · ATL 47% → 54% +7ATL 47% → 54%+7 pts
- Q14:52Jabari Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)ATL 21 – 24 HOU · HOU 57% → 63% +7HOU 57% → 63%+7 pts
- Q14:42Onyeka Okongwu makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 24 – 24 HOU · ATL 37% → 43% +7ATL 37% → 43%+7 pts
- Q22:00Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 22-foot running jump shot (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 51 – 58 HOU · ATL 20% → 26% +6ATL 20% → 26%+6 pts
- Q252.2Jabari Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)ATL 53 – 61 HOU · HOU 69% → 76% +7HOU 69% → 76%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -2.5
- ML ATL +124 / HOU -148
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1
- HOU 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 46.3%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -134
- ATL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 112.5 – 115.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | −16 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +26 Elo | ATL 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.1 | Points scored | 113.822nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 110.04th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +3.99th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 114.811th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 110.98th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.6 | Pace | 97.829th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 9th of 3019–15 | Road vs home | 23–106th of 30 |
| 26th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150019th of 30 |
| 11th of 301554 | Elo rating | 154513th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–32 | 29–39 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 17–18 | 24–35 |
| Underdog | 20–14 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 34–35 | 29–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–3 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.