Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints40
- Luka DoncicAssists10
- Luka DoncicRebounds9
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints27
- Alperen SengunAssists10
- Amen ThompsonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–116
- Q48.5LeBron James defensive rebound124–116
- Q49.7Alperen Sengun misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot124–116
- Q420.6Austin Reaves makes free throw 2 of 2124–116
- Q420.6Rui Hachimura enters the game for Luke Kennard123–116
- Q420.6Austin Reaves makes free throw 1 of 2123–116
- Q420.6Reed Sheppard personal take foul122–116
- Q422.9Alperen Sengun makes 27-foot three point jumper (Reed Sheppard assists)122–116
- Q430.8Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2122–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:14Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three pointer (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)LAL 102 – 103 HOU · HOU 41% → 57% +16HOU 41% → 57%+16 pts
- Q43:53Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 110 – 109 HOU · LAL 35% → 56% +21LAL 35% → 56%+21 pts
- Q43:14Luka Doncic makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 113 – 109 HOU · LAL 57% → 78% +21LAL 57% → 78%+21 pts
- Q42:53Amen Thompson makes alley oop layup (Alperen Sengun assists)LAL 113 – 111 HOU · HOU 21% → 35% +14HOU 21% → 35%+14 pts
- Q42:36Rui Hachimura makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 115 – 111 HOU · LAL 66% → 81% +14LAL 66% → 81%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -1.5
- ML LAL +110 / HOU -130
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -2.5
- HOU 39%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 39.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -119
- LAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 111.0 – 112.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1578 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +68 | −19 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +76 Elo | LAL 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 52.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 113.822nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.9 | Points allowed | 109.83rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +4.08th of 30 |
| 7th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 114.812th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.6 | Defense rating | 110.77th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.1 | Pace | 97.829th of 30 |
| 3rd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 5th of 3020–13 | Road vs home | 23–95th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 9th of 301578 | Elo rating | 155213th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+68 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–29 | 29–38 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 28–13 | 24–34 |
| Underdog | 11–16 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 35–33 | 28–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 5–4 HOU in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Mar 16LAL 100 @ HOU 92Picked LAL 52%Hit
- Dec 25HOU 119 @ LAL 96Picked HOU 53%Hit
- Apr 11HOU 109 @ LAL 140Picked LAL 88%Hit
- Mar 31HOU 98 @ LAL 104Picked LAL 63%Hit
- Jan 5LAL 115 @ HOU 119Picked HOU 62%Hit
- Jan 29LAL 119 @ HOU 135Picked LAL 54%Miss
- Dec 2HOU 97 @ LAL 107Picked LAL 53%Hit
- Nov 19HOU 104 @ LAL 105Picked HOU 52%Miss