Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Aaron GordonPoints27
- Nikola JokicAssists14
- Nikola JokicRebounds16
Lakers- Austin ReavesPoints32
- Luka DoncicAssists13
- Luka DoncicRebounds11
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game125–127
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime125–127
- OT0.1Nuggets offensive team rebound125–127
- OT0.2Luka Doncic blocks Tim Hardaway Jr. 's 29-foot three point jumper125–127
- OT0.5Cameron Johnson enters the game for Bruce Brown125–127
- OT0.5Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Spencer Jones125–127
- OT0.5Deandre Ayton enters the game for Rui Hachimura125–127
- OT0.5Nuggets Full timeout125–127
- OT0.5Luka Doncic makes 17-foot step back jumpshot125–127
- OT15.1Bruce Brown enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.125–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q431.7Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 115 – 113 LAL · DEN 31% → 84% +53DEN 31% → 84%+53 pts
- Q41.9Austin Reaves makes 8-foot driving floating jump shotDEN 118 – 118 LAL · LAL <1% → 50% +50LAL <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT47.0Aaron Gordon makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotDEN 123 – 122 LAL · DEN 21% → 66% +45DEN 21% → 66%+45 pts
- OT30.7Marcus Smart makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DEN 123 – 125 LAL · LAL 30% → 84% +54LAL 30% → 84%+54 pts
- OT0.5Luka Doncic makes 17-foot step back jumpshotDEN 125 – 127 LAL · LAL 50% → >99% +50LAL 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -1.5
- ML DEN -122 / LAL +102
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- DEN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- DEN: Elo 49.5%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- DEN -111
- LAL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 123.0 – 121.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 244.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1600 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +55 | +57 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +3 Elo | LAL 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 53.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30120.6 | Points scored | 116.311th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 115.114th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +1.215th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.4 | Offense rating | 116.17th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 114.821st of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.9 | Pace | 100.221st of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 4th of 3023–13 | Road vs home | 22–129th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 8th of 301600 | Elo rating | 15669th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–29 | 37–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 22–22 | 27–13 |
| Underdog | 16–7 | 10–16 |
| Overs–unders | 41–26 | 34–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 10–4 LAL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.
- Mar 5LAL 113 @ DEN 120Picked DEN 60%Hit
- Jan 20LAL 115 @ DEN 107Picked LAL 60%Hit
- Mar 19DEN 108 @ LAL 120Picked LAL 65%Hit
- Mar 14LAL 126 @ DEN 131Picked DEN 88%Hit
- Feb 22LAL 123 @ DEN 100Picked DEN 68%Miss
- Nov 23DEN 127 @ LAL 102Picked LAL 60%Miss
- Apr 29LAL 106 @ DEN 108PlayoffsPicked DEN 62%Hit
- Apr 27DEN 108 @ LAL 119PlayoffsPicked DEN 53%Miss