Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints39
- Nikola JokicAssists12
- Nikola JokicRebounds20
Spurs- Stephon CastlePoints30
- Stephon CastleAssists10
- Stephon CastleRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–131
- Q41.9Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 2136–131
- Q41.9Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 2135–131
- Q41.9Carter Bryant personal foul134–131
- Q44.2Nikola Jokic enters the game for Spencer Jones134–131
- Q44.2Julian Champagnie enters the game for Luke Kornet134–131
- Q44.2Carter Bryant enters the game for Harrison Barnes134–131
- Q44.2Nuggets Full timeout134–131
- Q44.2Harrison Barnes makes 3-foot reverse layup134–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:17Julian Strawther makes 25-foot running jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 108 – 109 SA · DEN 29% → 42% +13DEN 29% → 42%+13 pts
- Q46:56Harrison Barnes makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dylan Harper assists)DEN 112 – 116 SA · SA 59% → 73% +15SA 59% → 73%+15 pts
- Q46:11Dylan Harper makes 23-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)DEN 114 – 119 SA · SA 64% → 79% +15SA 64% → 79%+15 pts
- Q44:39Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotDEN 121 – 119 SA · DEN 41% → 61% +20DEN 41% → 61%+20 pts
- Q44:11Jamal Murray makes 1-foot turnaround jump shotDEN 123 – 119 SA · DEN 61% → 74% +13DEN 61% → 74%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SA -3.5
- ML DEN +130 / SA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -3.5
- SA 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- SA: Elo 63.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SA -140
- DEN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 119.0 – 122.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1591 | 1652 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +29 | −24 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +96 Elo | SA 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 60.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.4 | Points scored | 118.65th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 111.87th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +6.94th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.3 | Offense rating | 116.25th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.3 | Defense rating | 109.53rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.8 | Pace | 101.812th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 5th of 3022–13 | Road vs home | 25–62nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15047th of 30 |
| 8th of 301591 | Elo rating | 16523rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–29 | 39–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–22 | 26–21 |
| Underdog | 15–7 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 40–26 | 28–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 4–4 SA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- Nov 28SA 139 @ DEN 136Picked DEN 71%Miss
- Apr 2SA 113 @ DEN 106Picked DEN 54%Miss
- Jan 4DEN 122 @ SA 111Picked DEN 57%Hit
- Jan 3SA 113 @ DEN 110Picked DEN 67%Miss
- Apr 12DEN 120 @ SA 121Picked DEN 64%Miss
- Apr 2SA 105 @ DEN 110Picked DEN 74%Hit
- Mar 15DEN 117 @ SA 106Picked DEN 70%Hit
- Nov 26SA 120 @ DEN 132Picked DEN 79%Hit