Houston Rockets at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Amen ThompsonPoints16
- Kevin DurantAssists5
- Tari EasonRebounds8
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints30
- Nikola JokicAssists13
- Nikola JokicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–129
- Q40.1Rockets offensive team rebound93–129
- Q40.1Jeff Green misses heave jump shot93–129
- Q43.4shot clock turnover93–129
- Q428.0Josh Okogie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Aaron Holiday assists)93–129
- Q439.1David Roddy makes free throw 2 of 290–129
- Q439.1David Roddy makes free throw 1 of 290–128
- Q439.1Clint Capela shooting foul90–127
- Q446.3David Roddy defensive rebound90–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:33Jabari Smith Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 7 – 2 DEN · HOU 35% → 41% +6HOU 35% → 41%+6 pts
- Q18:09Cameron Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)HOU 7 – 7 DEN · DEN 63% → 69% +6DEN 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q15:55Jamal Murray makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)HOU 10 – 14 DEN · DEN 70% → 76% +6DEN 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q22.2Christian Braun makes 31-foot three point step back jumpshot (Aaron Gordon assists)HOU 47 – 53 DEN · DEN 72% → 79% +7DEN 72% → 79%+7 pts
- Q39:20Cameron Johnson makes 22-foot running jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)HOU 53 – 60 DEN · DEN 74% → 81% +7DEN 74% → 81%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -6.5
- ML HOU +215 / DEN -265
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -4
- DEN 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- DEN: Elo 65.1%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- DEN -229
- HOU +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 113.0 – 119.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1574 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +15 | +44 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +108 Elo | DEN 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 62.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 120.32nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.7 | Points allowed | 116.619th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.9 | Margin | +3.610th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 119.21st of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 115.623rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.0 | Pace | 99.822nd of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 14th of 3018–16 | Road vs home | 17–1314th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149525th of 30 |
| 9th of 301571 | Elo rating | 15748th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–35 | 36–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–33 | 21–22 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 28–36 | 40–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–5 DEN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.
- Dec 20HOU 115 @ DEN 101Picked HOU 53%Hit
- Dec 15HOU 125 @ DEN 128Picked HOU 51%Miss
- Nov 21DEN 112 @ HOU 109Picked HOU 57%Miss
- Apr 13DEN 126 @ HOU 111Picked DEN 68%Hit
- Mar 23DEN 116 @ HOU 111Picked HOU 72%Miss
- Jan 15HOU 128 @ DEN 108Picked HOU 64%Hit
- Dec 8HOU 114 @ DEN 106Picked DEN 65%Miss
- Nov 29HOU 124 @ DEN 134Picked DEN 70%Hit