Chicago Bulls at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Josh GiddeyPoints27
- Josh GiddeyAssists15
- Leonard MillerRebounds9
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints51
- Luka DoncicAssists9
- Luka DoncicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–142
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–142
- Q49.7shot clock turnover130–142
- Q433.7Leonard Miller makes running layup130–142
- Q438.4Leonard Miller defensive rebound128–142
- Q441.3Luke Kennard misses 27-foot running jump shot128–142
- Q445.5Lachlan Olbrich bad pass
turnover (Luke Kennard steals)128–142
- Q456.0Austin Reaves makes driving layup128–142
- Q41:12Leonard Miller makes driving layup128–140
- Q41:12Leonard Miller offensive rebound126–140
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:12Rob Dillingham makes 24-foot three point jumper (Matas Buzelis assists)CHI 45 – 39 LAL · CHI 30% → 37% +7CHI 30% → 37%+7 pts
- Q25:15Jalen Smith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)CHI 50 – 43 LAL · CHI 33% → 41% +8CHI 33% → 41%+8 pts
- Q24:53Jalen Smith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 53 – 46 LAL · CHI 33% → 41% +8CHI 33% → 41%+8 pts
- Q24:37Luka Doncic makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshotCHI 53 – 49 LAL · LAL 59% → 67% +8LAL 59% → 67%+8 pts
- Q23:19Rui Hachimura makes 31-foot three point jumper (Jake LaRavia assists)CHI 55 – 56 LAL · LAL 71% → 77% +7LAL 71% → 77%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -10.5
- ML CHI +425 / LAL -575
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -8
- LAL 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- LAL: Elo 78.8%, market 81.7%
- Fair odds
- LAL -447
- CHI +447 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 115.0 – 125.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1386 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +52 | +69 | CHI: Missing Collin Sexton −10 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +228 Elo | LAL 78.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 79.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 79.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 81.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 115.911th of 30 |
| 25th of 30119.9 | Points allowed | 114.914th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−4.2 | Margin | +1.015th of 30 |
| 25th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 115.78th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.5 | Defense rating | 114.721st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.2 | Pace | 100.121st of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3011–20 | Road vs home | 21–1211th of 30 |
| 8th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 24th of 301386 | Elo rating | 156210th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+52 Elo- Collin Sexton left leg injury−10 Elo
Lakers
+69 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–36 | 36–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–19 | 26–13 |
| Underdog | 23–17 | 10–16 |
| Overs–unders | 29–36 | 33–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–2 LAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.