Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints36
- LeBron JamesAssists5
- Deandre AytonRebounds11
Rockets- Jabari Smith Jr.Points22
- Amen ThompsonAssists5
- Amen ThompsonRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–92
- Q45.7shot clock turnover100–92
- Q429.8Kevin Durant makes driving layup100–92
- Q439.9LeBron James makes 2-foot running dunk (Austin Reaves assists)100–90
- Q442.0Tari Eason bad pass
turnover (Austin Reaves steals)98–90
- Q443.4Clint Capela enters the game for Amen Thompson98–90
- Q443.4Rockets Full timeout98–90
- Q443.4Deandre Ayton makes 5-foot two point shot (Marcus Smart assists)98–90
- Q455.4Deandre Ayton defensive rebound96–90
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q347.7Luka Doncic makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 83 – 78 HOU · LAL 59% → 70% +11LAL 59% → 70%+11 pts
- Q46:12Jabari Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dorian Finney-Smith assists)LAL 85 – 88 HOU · HOU 49% → 66% +17HOU 49% → 66%+17 pts
- Q43:16Deandre Ayton makes tip shotLAL 89 – 88 HOU · LAL 43% → 58% +16LAL 43% → 58%+16 pts
- Q42:38Luka Doncic makes 6-foot two point shotLAL 91 – 88 HOU · LAL 59% → 75% +16LAL 59% → 75%+16 pts
- Q42:00Marcus Smart makes 23-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 94 – 90 HOU · LAL 60% → 85% +24LAL 60% → 85%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -1.5
- ML LAL -118 / HOU -102
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -2.5
- LAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.5 pts
- LAL: Elo 60.2%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- LAL -107
- HOU +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 112.5 – 111.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +66 | −55 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAL +72 Elo | LAL 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 52.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 114.121st of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 109.94th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +4.26th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 115.010th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 110.77th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.2 | Pace | 97.929th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 6th of 3019–13 | Road vs home | 23–84th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 9th of 301571 | Elo rating | 155911th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–29 | 29–37 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 27–13 | 24–34 |
| Underdog | 11–16 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 35–32 | 28–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 4–4 HOU in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Dec 25HOU 119 @ LAL 96Picked HOU 53%Hit
- Apr 11HOU 109 @ LAL 140Picked LAL 88%Hit
- Mar 31HOU 98 @ LAL 104Picked LAL 63%Hit
- Jan 5LAL 115 @ HOU 119Picked HOU 62%Hit
- Jan 29LAL 119 @ HOU 135Picked LAL 54%Miss
- Dec 2HOU 97 @ LAL 107Picked LAL 53%Hit
- Nov 19HOU 104 @ LAL 105Picked HOU 52%Miss
- Nov 8LAL 94 @ HOU 128Picked HOU 69%Hit