New Orleans Pelicans at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Dejounte MurrayPoints35
- Trey Murphy IIIAssists7
- Herbert JonesRebounds9
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints32
- Amen ThompsonAssists8
- Amen ThompsonRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–107
- Q40.0Pelicans offensive team rebound105–107
- Q40.0Trey Murphy III misses 27-foot fade away jump shot105–107
- Q41.1Trey Murphy III offensive rebound105–107
- Q43.4Dejounte Murray misses free throw 2 of 2105–107
- Q43.4Yves Missi enters the game for Herbert Jones105–107
- Q43.4Clint Capela enters the game for Josh Okogie105–107
- Q43.4Dejounte Murray makes free throw 1 of 2105–107
- Q43.4Amen Thompson personal take foul104–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:35Jabari Smith Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)NO 83 – 86 HOU · HOU 57% → 71% +14HOU 57% → 71%+14 pts
- Q41:34Zion Williamson makes 2-foot driving dunkNO 100 – 100 HOU · NO 26% → 47% +21NO 26% → 47%+21 pts
- Q41:07Dejounte Murray makes running layupNO 102 – 100 HOU · NO 47% → 73% +26NO 47% → 73%+26 pts
- Q421.7Jabari Smith Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)NO 104 – 103 HOU · HOU <1% → 29% +28HOU <1% → 29%+28 pts
- Q47.6Kevin Durant makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)NO 104 – 105 HOU · HOU 16% → 85% +69HOU 16% → 85%+69 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -5.5
- ML NO +185 / HOU -225
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -2
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.9%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -197
- NO +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 112.5 – 118.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1405 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +60 | −59 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Missing Alperen Sengun −37 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +55 Elo | HOU 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 59.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 114.221st of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.0 | Points allowed | 110.04th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.4 | Margin | +4.37th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 115.010th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.4 | Defense rating | 110.77th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.4 | Pace | 98.029th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 24th of 309–24 | Road vs home | 22–84th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301405 | Elo rating | 155511th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−59 Elo- Alperen Sengun back−37 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–30 | 29–36 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–3 | 24–33 |
| Underdog | 27–27 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 35–32 | 28–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 3–7 HOU in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Jan 18NO 110 @ HOU 119Picked HOU 86%Hit
- Dec 18HOU 128 @ NO 133Picked HOU 77%Miss
- Mar 8NO 117 @ HOU 146Picked HOU 71%Hit
- Mar 6HOU 109 @ NO 97Picked HOU 58%Hit
- Dec 26HOU 128 @ NO 111Picked HOU 71%Hit
- Dec 19NO 113 @ HOU 133Picked HOU 77%Hit
- Feb 22HOU 105 @ NO 127Picked NO 69%Hit
- Jan 31NO 110 @ HOU 99Picked HOU 51%Miss