Atlanta Hawks at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- CJ McCollumPoints24
- Jalen JohnsonAssists9
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds11
Mavericks- Daniel GaffordPoints24
- Ryan NembhardAssists12
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game135–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter135–120
- Q423.6AJ Johnson makes free throw 1 of 1135–120
- Q423.6Jalen Johnson shooting foul135–119
- Q423.6AJ Johnson makes driving layup135–119
- Q435.0Marvin Bagley III defensive rebound135–117
- Q437.8Caleb Houstan misses 27-foot running jump shot135–117
- Q442.5Jalen Johnson defensive rebound135–117
- Q446.1Ryan Nembhard misses 17-foot step back jumpshot135–117
- Q451.7Keaton Wallace makes 2-foot layup (Onyeka Okongwu assists)135–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:09Onyeka Okongwu makes 27-foot running jump shot (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 5 – 0 DAL · ATL 77% → 81% +5ATL 77% → 81%+5 pts
- Q11:39Jonathan Kuminga makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jock Landale assists)ATL 32 – 25 DAL · ATL 78% → 83% +5ATL 78% → 83%+5 pts
- Q24:36P.J. Washington makes 27-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)ATL 55 – 47 DAL · DAL 11% → 15% +4DAL 11% → 15%+4 pts
- Q21:47Max Christie makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Cooper Flagg assists)ATL 61 – 53 DAL · DAL 11% → 15% +4DAL 11% → 15%+4 pts
- Q39:59P.J. Washington makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ryan Nembhard assists)ATL 71 – 63 DAL · DAL 10% → 15% +5DAL 10% → 15%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -8.5
- ML ATL -325 / DAL +260
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -6.5
- ATL 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 73.4%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -275
- DAL +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 124.0 – 115.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1382 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +43 | −3 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +176 Elo | ATL 73.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 75.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 74.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 113.224th of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 118.223rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −5.125th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 108.627th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 113.518th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.5 | Pace | 103.46th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 2–823rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3018–15 | Road vs home | 14–2024th of 30 |
| 27th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 13th of 301548 | Elo rating | 138225th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–32 | 30–39 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–18 | 8–14 |
| Underdog | 20–14 | 22–25 |
| Overs–unders | 33–35 | 29–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 1–4 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.