Cleveland Cavaliers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Evan MobleyPoints29
- Donovan MitchellAssists8
- Evan MobleyRebounds7
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints25
- Ryan NembhardAssists9
- Dwight PowellRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game138–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter138–105
- Q48.4Dwight Powell makes 1-foot dunk138–105
- Q48.4Dwight Powell offensive rebound138–103
- Q411.1Tyler Smith misses 26-foot three point jumper138–103
- Q427.6Larry Nance Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Riley Minix assists)138–103
- Q432.8Riley Minix defensive rebound135–103
- Q435.6Caleb Martin misses 23-foot three point jumper135–103
- Q444.0Tristan Enaruna makes driving layup (Larry Nance Jr. assists)135–103
- Q445.5Larry Nance Jr. offensive rebound133–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:55Naji Marshall makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ryan Nembhard assists)CLE 2 – 5 DAL · DAL 16% → 20% +4DAL 16% → 20%+4 pts
- Q110:20Naji Marshall makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ryan Nembhard assists)CLE 4 – 8 DAL · DAL 18% → 22% +4DAL 18% → 22%+4 pts
- Q18:03Cooper Flagg makes 8-foot two point shotCLE 8 – 12 DAL · DAL 20% → 23% +3DAL 20% → 23%+3 pts
- Q17:48Evan Mobley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 11 – 12 DAL · CLE 77% → 81% +5CLE 77% → 81%+5 pts
- Q16:06Evan Mobley makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)CLE 18 – 12 DAL · CLE 86% → 90% +3CLE 86% → 90%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -13.5
- ML CLE -700 / DAL +500
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -9.5
- CLE 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 81.9%, market 84.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -525
- DAL +525 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 125.0 – 111.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1624 | 1374 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −2 | −11 | CLE: Usual rotation · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +262 Elo | CLE 81.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 81.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 81.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 84.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30118.8 | Points scored | 113.124th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.8 | Points allowed | 117.722nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.0 | Margin | −4.724th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 108.627th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 113.116th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.8 | Pace | 103.37th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 8th of 3018–14 | Road vs home | 14–1923rd of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 5th of 301624 | Elo rating | 137425th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–39 | 29–37 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–34 | 8–14 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 21–23 |
| Overs–unders | 31–35 | 27–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–0 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.