Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Naji MarshallPoints32
- Cooper FlaggAssists8
- Marvin Bagley IIIRebounds9
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints27
- Trey Murphy IIIAssists7
- Karlo MatkovicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–129
- Q46.8Tyler Smith defensive rebound111–129
- Q48.8Micah Peavy misses free throw 2 of 2111–129
- Q48.8Pelicans offensive team rebound111–129
- Q48.8Micah Peavy misses free throw 1 of 2111–129
- Q48.8AJ Johnson shooting foul111–129
- Q48.8Micah Peavy offensive rebound111–129
- Q48.8Micah Peavy misses running dunk111–129
- Q413.1Jordan Hawkins defensive rebound111–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:23Marvin Bagley III makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)DAL 21 – 13 NO · DAL 37% → 44% +7DAL 37% → 44%+7 pts
- Q14:04Trey Murphy III makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jeremiah Fears assists)DAL 23 – 18 NO · NO 55% → 62% +7NO 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q12:37Saddiq Bey makes 25-foot three pointer (Derik Queen assists)DAL 23 – 23 NO · NO 66% → 72% +6NO 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q29:58Max Christie makes 24-foot running jump shot (Naji Marshall assists)DAL 35 – 36 NO · DAL 21% → 27% +6DAL 21% → 27%+6 pts
- Q29:42Jeremiah Fears makes 28-foot three pointerDAL 35 – 39 NO · NO 73% → 79% +6NO 73% → 79%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NO -8.5
- ML DAL +270 / NO -340
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -4.5
- NO 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- NO: Elo 66.8%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- NO -286
- DAL +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 116.0 – 124.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1391 | 1401 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +1 | +36 | DAL: Usual rotation · NO: Missing Dejounte Murray −22 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +122 Elo | NO 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 69.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 69.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30113.2 | Points scored | 115.417th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30118.1 | Points allowed | 119.825th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.9 | Margin | −4.422nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 112.121st of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 116.326th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.3 | Pace | 102.311th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 24th of 309–24 | Road vs home | 13–2124th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 25th of 301391 | Elo rating | 140123rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+36 Elo- Dejounte Murray illness−22 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–38 | 38–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 8–14 | 10–3 |
| Underdog | 22–24 | 28–27 |
| Overs–unders | 29–39 | 35–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 6–5 NO in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.
- Dec 22DAL 113 @ NO 119Picked DAL 50%Miss
- Nov 21NO 115 @ DAL 118Picked DAL 58%Hit
- Nov 5NO 101 @ DAL 99Picked DAL 72%Miss
- Feb 21NO 103 @ DAL 111Picked DAL 68%Hit
- Jan 29DAL 137 @ NO 136Picked NO 50%Miss
- Jan 15DAL 116 @ NO 119Picked NO 51%Hit
- Nov 19NO 91 @ DAL 132Picked DAL 86%Hit
- Jan 15NO 120 @ DAL 125Picked NO 62%Miss