Dallas Mavericks at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints27
- Cooper FlaggAssists10
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds11
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints26
- Donovan MitchellAssists11
- Evan MobleyRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–120
- Q415.7shot clock turnover130–120
- Q439.7Mavericks defensive team rebound130–120
- Q440.5James Harden misses 25-foot three point jumper130–120
- Q447.5Evan Mobley defensive rebound130–120
- Q449.8Cooper Flagg misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot130–120
- Q41:11Donovan Mitchell makes 1-foot two point shot (James Harden assists)130–120
- Q41:19Cooper Flagg makes free throw 2 of 2130–118
- Q41:19Mavericks offensive team rebound129–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:20Ryan Nembhard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)DAL 78 – 67 CLE · DAL 46% → 55% +10DAL 46% → 55%+10 pts
- Q36:10Cooper Flagg makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandon Williams assists)DAL 81 – 72 CLE · DAL 41% → 51% +10DAL 41% → 51%+10 pts
- Q33:31Thomas Bryant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)DAL 86 – 79 CLE · CLE 41% → 52% +11CLE 41% → 52%+11 pts
- Q31:46John Poulakidas makes 26-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)DAL 91 – 81 CLE · DAL 51% → 63% +11DAL 51% → 63%+11 pts
- Q31:28John Poulakidas makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandon Williams assists)DAL 94 – 83 CLE · DAL 56% → 67% +11DAL 56% → 67%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -14.5
- ML DAL +750 / CLE -1200
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -11.5
- CLE 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 86.1%, market 88.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -785
- DAL +785 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 109.5 – 124.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1367 | 1631 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −23 | −6 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | DAL crossed 1 time zone and CLE crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +316 Elo | CLE 86.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 85.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 85.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 88.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 119.13rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30118.0 | Points allowed | 114.613th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.1 | Margin | +4.46th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.5 | Offense rating | 116.26th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 111.911th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.3 | Pace | 101.813th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 25th of 308–24 | Road vs home | 22–1210th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 26th of 301367 | Elo rating | 16315th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–38 | 28–39 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–14 | 20–34 |
| Underdog | 21–24 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 28–39 | 32–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 0–5 CLE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.