Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Brandin PodziemskiPoints23
- Draymond GreenAssists8
- Gui SantosRebounds10
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints25
- Nikola JokicAssists8
- Nikola JokicRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–116
- Q410.0shot clock turnover93–116
- Q433.6LJ Cryer bad pass
turnover (Tyus Jones steals)93–116
- Q442.9DaRon Holmes II makes 1-foot driving dunk (Tyus Jones assists)93–116
- Q41:01Omer Yurtseven lost ball turnover (Curtis Jones steals)93–114
- Q41:03Omer Yurtseven offensive rebound93–114
- Q41:05Pat Spencer misses free throw 3 of 393–114
- Q41:05Julian Strawther enters the game for Peyton Watson93–114
- Q41:05Warriors offensive team rebound93–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:26Cameron Johnson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)GS 53 – 49 DEN · DEN 55% → 64% +9DEN 55% → 64%+9 pts
- Q38:39Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)GS 61 – 58 DEN · DEN 56% → 65% +9DEN 56% → 65%+9 pts
- Q37:26Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Peyton Watson assists)GS 61 – 61 DEN · DEN 64% → 73% +9DEN 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q34:41Nikola Jokic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)GS 66 – 67 DEN · DEN 65% → 74% +9DEN 65% → 74%+9 pts
- Q34:06Brandin Podziemski makes 24-foot three pointer (Pat Spencer assists)GS 69 – 67 DEN · GS 26% → 36% +9GS 26% → 36%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -11.5
- ML GS +455 / DEN -625
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -7.5
- DEN 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- DEN: Elo 77.5%, market 82.7%
- Fair odds
- DEN -478
- GS +478 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 113.5 – 125.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1606 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | +42 | GS: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | GS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +215 Elo | DEN 77.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 77.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 77.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 82.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30115.2 | Points scored | 121.31st of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.9 | Points allowed | 116.921st of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +4.46th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 119.81st of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 115.422nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.4 | Pace | 100.221st of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 20th of 3015–23 | Road vs home | 23–139th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149326th of 30 |
| 17th of 301494 | Elo rating | 16067th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–42 | 40–35 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–26 | 24–28 |
| Underdog | 11–16 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 45–29 | 46–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 3–7 DEN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Feb 22DEN 117 @ GS 128Picked DEN 68%Miss
- Nov 7GS 104 @ DEN 129Picked DEN 78%Hit
- Oct 23DEN 131 @ GS 137Picked GS 51%Hit
- Apr 4DEN 104 @ GS 118Picked GS 59%Hit
- Mar 17DEN 114 @ GS 105Picked GS 81%Miss
- Dec 3GS 115 @ DEN 119Picked DEN 64%Hit
- Feb 25DEN 119 @ GS 103Picked GS 59%Miss
- Jan 4DEN 130 @ GS 127Picked DEN 57%Hit