Brooklyn Nets at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Ziaire WilliamsPoints19
- Ben SarafAssists7
- Terance MannRebounds5
Warriors- Gui SantosPoints31
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists5
- De'Anthony MeltonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–109
- Q42.7Josh Minott bad pass
turnover (De'Anthony Melton steals)106–109
- Q46.9Draymond Green makes free throw 2 of 2106–109
- Q46.9Draymond Green makes free throw 1 of 2106–108
- Q46.9Josh Minott personal take foul106–107
- Q46.9Draymond Green defensive rebound106–107
- Q48.7Ben Saraf misses two point shot106–107
- Q416.9Nets Full timeout106–107
- Q424.5De'Anthony Melton makes free throw 2 of 2106–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:08Malachi Smith makes 28-foot three point jumper (Ben Saraf assists)BKN 100 – 97 GS · BKN 39% → 60% +21BKN 39% → 60%+21 pts
- Q43:51Draymond Green makes 22-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)BKN 100 – 100 GS · GS 39% → 61% +22GS 39% → 61%+22 pts
- Q41:36Kristaps Porzingis makes tip shotBKN 104 – 104 GS · GS 35% → 57% +22GS 35% → 57%+22 pts
- Q446.0Ben Saraf makes 1-foot driving dunkBKN 106 – 106 GS · BKN 17% → 45% +28BKN 17% → 45%+28 pts
- Q424.5De'Anthony Melton makes free throw 2 of 2BKN 106 – 107 GS · GS 53% → 74% +21GS 53% → 74%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- GS -12.5
- ML BKN +455 / GS -625
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -9
- GS 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- GS: Elo 81.1%, market 82.7%
- Fair odds
- GS -478
- BKN +478 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 102.5 – 115.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1290 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −35 | −18 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +253 Elo | GS 81.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 82.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 82.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 82.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30106.3 | Points scored | 115.119th of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 114.913th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.5 | Margin | +0.218th of 30 |
| 30th of 30107.2 | Offense rating | 112.719th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.8 | Defense rating | 112.514th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.7 | Pace | 101.318th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–824th of 30 |
| 27th of 308–29 | Road vs home | 19–1516th of 30 |
| 1st of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 15085th of 30 |
| 28th of 301290 | Elo rating | 148919th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–39 | 32–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 21–24 |
| Underdog | 29–38 | 11–16 |
| Overs–unders | 33–39 | 44–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 1–4 GS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.