Portland Trail Blazers at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints18
- Deni AvdijaAssists5
- Donovan ClinganRebounds11
Nets- Chaney JohnsonPoints17
- Ben SarafAssists4
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–95
- Q46.7shot clock turnover114–95
- Q431.1Tyson Etienne traveling turnover114–95
- Q443.5Blake Wesley makes 1-foot driving dunk114–95
- Q458.7Jayson Kent defensive rebound112–95
- Q41:03Malachi Smith misses 22-foot three point jumper112–95
- Q41:15Blake Wesley makes driving layup112–95
- Q41:35Tyson Etienne makes 26-foot three point jumper110–95
- Q41:47Jayson Kent makes 1-foot layup (Matisse Thybulle assists)110–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:26Jerami Grant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 3 – 0 BKN · POR 80% → 84% +4POR 80% → 84%+4 pts
- Q110:54Donovan Clingan makes 1-foot dunk (Deni Avdija assists)POR 5 – 0 BKN · POR 84% → 87% +2POR 84% → 87%+2 pts
- Q110:09Jrue Holiday makes 22-foot running jump shot (Jerami Grant assists)POR 8 – 0 BKN · POR 87% → 90% +3POR 87% → 90%+3 pts
- Q17:29Toumani Camara makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)POR 15 – 2 BKN · POR 91% → 94% +2POR 91% → 94%+2 pts
- Q210:36Danny Wolf makes 22-foot running jump shot (Nic Claxton assists)POR 37 – 25 BKN · BKN 5% → 7% +2BKN 5% → 7%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- POR -10.5
- ML POR -520 / BKN +390
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -5
- POR 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.0 pts
- POR: Elo 68.4%, market 80.4%
- Fair odds
- POR -411
- BKN +411 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 116.0 – 105.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1314 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +28 | −52 | POR: Missing Damian Lillard −45, Robert Williams III −21, Shaedon Sharpe −8 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +134 Elo | POR 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 76.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 75.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 80.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30115.1 | Points scored | 106.730th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.6 | Points allowed | 115.616th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.5 | Margin | −8.928th of 30 |
| 25th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 107.830th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 116.827th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.3 | Pace | 98.527th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–824th of 30 |
| 19th of 3014–20 | Road vs home | 9–2330th of 30 |
| 1st of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 15112nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301445 | Elo rating | 131429th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+28 Elo- Damian Lillard right achilles soreness−45 Elo
- Robert Williams III left knee injury management−21 Elo
- Shaedon Sharpe left leg injury−8 Elo
Nets
−52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–33 | 31–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–14 | 4–1 |
| Underdog | 21–19 | 27–35 |
| Overs–unders | 37–31 | 31–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 3–1 BKN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.