Portland Trail Blazers at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints25
- Deni AvdijaAssists9
- Donovan ClinganRebounds15
76ers- Quentin GrimesPoints31
- Andre DrummondAssists4
- Andre DrummondRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–109
- Q410.1Dominick Barlow defensive rebound103–109
- Q411.6Deni Avdija misses 23-foot fade away jump shot103–109
- Q421.1Adem Bona enters the game for Trendon Watford103–109
- Q421.1Dominick Barlow enters the game for Andre Drummond103–109
- Q421.1Scoot Henderson enters the game for Donovan Clingan103–109
- Q421.1Trail Blazers Full timeout103–109
- Q421.1Quentin Grimes makes free throw 2 of 2103–109
- Q421.1Donovan Clingan enters the game for Scoot Henderson103–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:29Jerami Grant makes 22-foot three point jumper (Matisse Thybulle assists)POR 74 – 80 PHI · POR 29% → 40% +11POR 29% → 40%+11 pts
- Q411:22Vit Krejci makes 26-foot running jump shot (Deni Avdija assists)POR 79 – 82 PHI · POR 37% → 50% +13POR 37% → 50%+13 pts
- Q410:47Deni Avdija makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Donovan Clingan assists)POR 82 – 82 PHI · POR 49% → 62% +13POR 49% → 62%+13 pts
- Q42:54Scoot Henderson makes running layupPOR 97 – 101 PHI · POR 13% → 25% +11POR 13% → 25%+11 pts
- Q41:53VJ Edgecombe makes 16-foot pullup jump shotPOR 97 – 103 PHI · PHI 82% → 93% +10PHI 82% → 93%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- POR -8.5
- ML POR -340 / PHI +270
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -2.5
- POR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.9 pts
- POR: Elo 60.2%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- POR -286
- PHI +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 118.5 – 110.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +41 | −112 | POR: Missing Damian Lillard −42, Shaedon Sharpe −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | POR crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | POR +72 Elo | POR 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 64.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 115.715th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.7 | Points allowed | 116.218th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.4 | Margin | −0.519th of 30 |
| 24th of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 112.719th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 113.216th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.3 | Pace | 101.417th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 19th of 3014–19 | Road vs home | 19–1616th of 30 |
| 1st of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 20th of 301455 | Elo rating | 150317th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+41 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles tendon−42 Elo
- Shaedon Sharpe left leg injury−9 Elo
76ers
−112 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–32 | 36–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–13 | 21–15 |
| Underdog | 21–19 | 15–16 |
| Overs–unders | 37–30 | 35–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 3–2 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.