Utah Jazz at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Brice SensabaughPoints31
- Isaiah CollierAssists9
- Cody WilliamsRebounds7
Trail Blazers- Jrue HolidayPoints25
- Jrue HolidayAssists8
- Donovan ClinganRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–124
- Q415.3Cody Williams makes free throw 1 of 1114–124
- Q415.3Blake Wesley shooting foul113–124
- Q415.3Cody Williams makes running dunk113–124
- Q418.6Cody Williams defensive rebound111–124
- Q422.3Sidy Cissoko misses 26-foot three point jumper111–124
- Q444.9Sidy Cissoko defensive rebound111–124
- Q448.1Isaiah Collier misses 26-foot three point jumper111–124
- Q448.9Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Deni Avdija111–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:19Scoot Henderson makes 24-foot three pointer (Matisse Thybulle assists)UTAH 33 – 18 POR · POR 52% → 59% +7POR 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q12:18Brice Sensabaugh makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bez Mbeng assists)UTAH 38 – 22 POR · UTAH 37% → 44% +7UTAH 37% → 44%+7 pts
- Q49:25Kyle Filipowski makes 25-foot three point jumper (Andersson Garcia assists)UTAH 96 – 99 POR · UTAH 11% → 19% +8UTAH 11% → 19%+8 pts
- Q45:49Brice Sensabaugh makes 24-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 101 – 106 POR · UTAH 5% → 12% +7UTAH 5% → 12%+7 pts
- Q43:52Jrue Holiday makes 24-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)UTAH 103 – 111 POR · POR 90% → 96% +7POR 90% → 96%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- POR -15.5
- ML UTAH +750 / POR -1200
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -6.5
- POR 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.0 pts
- POR: Elo 73.7%, market 88.7%
- Fair odds
- POR -785
- UTAH +785 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 110.0 – 125.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1327 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | +9 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Damian Lillard −46, Robert Williams III −22, Shaedon Sharpe −11 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +179 Elo | POR 73.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 79.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 79.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 88.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 115.119th of 30 |
| 30th of 30125.0 | Points allowed | 117.822nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.6 | Margin | −2.620th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 111.125th of 30 |
| 30th of 30119.7 | Defense rating | 113.618th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.5 | Pace | 103.38th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 25th of 308–24 | Road vs home | 17–1618th of 30 |
| 4th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 15161st of 30 |
| 28th of 301327 | Elo rating | 145020th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+9 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles tendon−46 Elo
- Robert Williams III left knee injury management−22 Elo
- Shaedon Sharpe left leg injury−11 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–31 | 35–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 14–12 |
| Underdog | 30–29 | 21–19 |
| Overs–unders | 38–28 | 36–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 5–6 POR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Feb 12POR 135 @ UTAH 119Picked POR 67%Hit
- Jan 5UTAH 117 @ POR 137Picked POR 67%Hit
- Oct 29POR 136 @ UTAH 134Picked POR 58%Hit
- Apr 9POR 126 @ UTAH 133Picked POR 69%Miss
- Feb 24POR 114 @ UTAH 112Picked POR 72%Hit
- Dec 26UTAH 120 @ POR 122Picked POR 59%Hit
- Dec 6UTAH 141 @ POR 99Picked POR 61%Miss
- Dec 14UTAH 122 @ POR 114Picked POR 58%Miss