Charlotte Hornets at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints23
- Brandon MillerAssists4
- Brandon MillerRebounds9
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints24
- Deni AvdijaAssists7
- Donovan ClinganRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–101
- Q40.0(00:00) [Hornets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)103–101
- Q40.0Scoot Henderson makes 41-foot three pointer (Toumani Camara assists)103–101
- Q43.1Brandon Miller makes free throw 2 of 2103–98
- Q43.1Scoot Henderson enters the game for Robert Williams III102–98
- Q43.1Brandon Miller makes free throw 1 of 2102–98
- Q43.1Jrue Holiday personal take foul101–98
- Q46.6Grant Williams enters the game for Moussa Diabate101–98
- Q46.6Robert Williams III enters the game for Scoot Henderson101–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:28LaMelo Ball makes 24-foot three pointerCHA 88 – 87 POR · CHA 43% → 59% +16CHA 43% → 59%+16 pts
- Q43:45LaMelo Ball makes 27-foot three pointerCHA 95 – 91 POR · CHA 60% → 79% +19CHA 60% → 79%+19 pts
- Q42:51Robert Williams III makes 3-foot alley oop dunk (Deni Avdija assists)CHA 95 – 95 POR · POR 32% → 48% +16POR 32% → 48%+16 pts
- Q42:28LaMelo Ball makes 12-foot floating jump shotCHA 97 – 95 POR · CHA 52% → 69% +17CHA 52% → 69%+17 pts
- Q42:12Toumani Camara makes 26-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)CHA 97 – 98 POR · POR 30% → 58% +28POR 30% → 58%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -3.5
- ML CHA -155 / POR +130
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -4
- CHA 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.1 pts
- CHA: Elo 65.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CHA -140
- POR +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 115.5 – 112.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +58 | +24 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Damian Lillard −44 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +111 Elo | CHA 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 58.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 115.317th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 118.023rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+3.4 | Margin | −2.621st of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 111.224th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 113.818th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.6 | Pace | 103.38th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 13th of 3018–16 | Road vs home | 17–1516th of 30 |
| 29th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 15161st of 30 |
| 10th of 301566 | Elo rating | 145320th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+24 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles tendon−44 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–24 | 34–31 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–8 | 14–12 |
| Underdog | 27–16 | 20–19 |
| Overs–unders | 25–40 | 36–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 2–3 POR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.