Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Danny WolfPoints15
- Ben SarafAssists5
- Danny WolfRebounds10
76ers- Quentin GrimesPoints28
- VJ EdgecombeAssists7
- Adem BonaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–104
- Q44.4Quentin Grimes defensive rebound97–104
- Q47.6Nolan Traore misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot97–104
- Q410.2VJ Edgecombe makes free throw 2 of 297–104
- Q410.2VJ Edgecombe makes free throw 1 of 297–103
- Q410.2Chaney Johnson personal take foul97–102
- Q411.9Ben Saraf makes driving layup (Nolan Traore assists)97–102
- Q418.1Quentin Grimes makes free throw 2 of 295–102
- Q418.1Dominick Barlow enters the game for Cameron Payne95–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:52E.J. Liddell makes 28-foot three point jumper (Malachi Smith assists)BKN 84 – 86 PHI · BKN 13% → 29% +15BKN 13% → 29%+15 pts
- Q43:23Tyson Etienne makes 25-foot three point jumper (E.J. Liddell assists)BKN 87 – 86 PHI · BKN 28% → 50% +22BKN 28% → 50%+22 pts
- Q42:36Justin Edwards makes driving layupBKN 87 – 90 PHI · PHI 65% → 80% +15PHI 65% → 80%+15 pts
- Q42:04E.J. Liddell makes 2-foot two point shotBKN 89 – 92 PHI · BKN 8% → 18% +10BKN 8% → 18%+10 pts
- Q41:16Ben Saraf makes driving layup (Chaney Johnson assists)BKN 91 – 94 PHI · BKN 4% → 14% +10BKN 4% → 14%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -8.5
- ML BKN +300 / PHI -380
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -5.5
- PHI 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 70.0%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -317
- BKN +317 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 104.5 – 113.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1318 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −59 | −128 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +147 Elo | PHI 70.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 70.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 70.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 76.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30106.9 | Points scored | 115.812th of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 116.518th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.9 | Margin | −0.719th of 30 |
| 29th of 30108.0 | Offense rating | 112.818th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.0 | Defense rating | 113.517th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.4 | Pace | 101.417th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 27th of 308–26 | Road vs home | 18–1616th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 29th of 301318 | Elo rating | 149917th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−128 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–36 | 36–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 21–14 |
| Underdog | 26–35 | 15–16 |
| Overs–unders | 31–35 | 35–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 5–6 PHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.
- Dec 23BKN 114 @ PHI 106Picked PHI 77%Miss
- Nov 28PHI 115 @ BKN 103Picked PHI 71%Hit
- Nov 2PHI 129 @ BKN 105Picked PHI 64%Hit
- Feb 22BKN 105 @ PHI 103Picked PHI 82%Miss
- Feb 12PHI 96 @ BKN 100Picked BKN 53%Hit
- Jan 4PHI 123 @ BKN 94Picked PHI 77%Hit
- Nov 22BKN 98 @ PHI 113Picked PHI 57%Hit
- Apr 14BKN 86 @ PHI 107Picked PHI 65%Hit