Brooklyn Nets at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Tyson EtiennePoints18
- Nolan TraoreAssists5
- Josh MinottRebounds5
Trail Blazers- Toumani CamaraPoints35
- Kris MurrayAssists5
- Donovan ClinganRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–134
- Q415.4shot clock turnover99–134
- Q440.0Tyson Etienne makes 26-foot three pointer (Chaney Johnson assists)99–134
- Q457.7Blake Wesley makes free throw 1 of 196–134
- Q457.7Tyson Etienne shooting foul96–133
- Q457.7Blake Wesley makes 7-foot two point shot96–133
- Q41:15Yang Hansen defensive rebound96–131
- Q41:17Jalen Wilson misses driving floating jump shot96–131
- Q41:30Kris Murray makes 1-foot layup (Blake Wesley assists)96–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:39Toumani Camara makes 28-foot jump bank shot (Jrue Holiday assists)BKN 8 – 8 POR · POR 83% → 87% +4POR 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q17:11Nic Claxton makes 19-foot floating jump shot (Nolan Traore assists)BKN 11 – 8 POR · BKN 14% → 17% +3BKN 14% → 17%+3 pts
- Q16:55Matisse Thybulle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)BKN 11 – 11 POR · POR 83% → 87% +4POR 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q15:12Josh Minott makes 27-foot three point jumper (Chaney Johnson assists)BKN 16 – 15 POR · BKN 11% → 15% +4BKN 11% → 15%+4 pts
- Q13:19Kris Murray makes 23-foot three point jumper (Sidy Cissoko assists)BKN 18 – 25 POR · POR 90% → 93% +3POR 90% → 93%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- POR -15.5
- ML BKN +700 / POR -1100
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -8
- POR 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- POR: Elo 78.5%, market 88.0%
- Fair odds
- POR -733
- BKN +733 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 101.5 – 117.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1298 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | POR and BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −13 | +18 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Robert Williams III −23, Shaedon Sharpe −12, Jerami Grant −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +225 Elo | POR 78.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 84.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 84.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 88.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30106.4 | Points scored | 115.118th of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.5 | Points allowed | 117.221st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.1 | Margin | −2.220th of 30 |
| 30th of 30107.5 | Offense rating | 111.224th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.7 | Defense rating | 113.317th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.5 | Pace | 103.27th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 27th of 308–28 | Road vs home | 18–1619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 15104th of 30 |
| 29th of 301298 | Elo rating | 145720th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+18 Elo- Robert Williams III left knee injury management−23 Elo
- Shaedon Sharpe left fibula stress reaction−12 Elo
- Jerami Grant sore left foot−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–38 | 37–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 15–15 |
| Underdog | 29–37 | 22–20 |
| Overs–unders | 32–39 | 39–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 1–4 POR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.