Portland Trail Blazers at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints32
- Jrue HolidayAssists8
- Donovan ClinganRebounds13
Pacers- Ivica ZubacPoints18
- T.J. McConnellAssists10
- Ivica ZubacRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–119
- Q414.7Kobe Brown out of bounds bad pass turnover127–119
- Q415.4Kobe Brown offensive rebound127–119
- Q418.5Taelon Peter misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot127–119
- Q426.7Jerami Grant makes free throw 2 of 2127–119
- Q426.7Jerami Grant makes free throw 1 of 2126–119
- Q426.7Kam Jones personal foul125–119
- Q432.9Jalen Slawson makes 2-foot two point shot (Kam Jones assists)125–119
- Q436.2Pacers Full timeout125–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:50Jalen Slawson makes 27-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)POR 41 – 38 IND · IND 11% → 15% +4IND 11% → 15%+4 pts
- Q29:58Jrue Holiday makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kris Murray assists)POR 45 – 38 IND · POR 86% → 90% +4POR 86% → 90%+4 pts
- Q42:25Taelon Peter makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Slawson assists)POR 120 – 114 IND · IND 1% → 5% +4IND 1% → 5%+4 pts
- Q41:52Kobe Brown makes 26-foot running jump shot (Jalen Slawson assists)POR 120 – 117 IND · IND 4% → 16% +12IND 4% → 16%+12 pts
- Q459.9Jrue Holiday makes 22-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 123 – 117 IND · POR 89% → 99% +10POR 89% → 99%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- POR -11.5
- ML POR -675 / IND +490
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -7.5
- POR 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- POR: Elo 77.5%, market 83.7%
- Fair odds
- POR -514
- IND +514 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 122.5 – 111.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1322 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +47 | −32 | POR: Missing Damian Lillard −40, Shaedon Sharpe −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · IND: Missing Andrew Nembhard −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +215 Elo | POR 77.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 83.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 82.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 83.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.1 | Points scored | 111.228th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.2 | Points allowed | 120.127th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.2 | Margin | −9.027th of 30 |
| 25th of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 107.929th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 116.626th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.3 | Pace | 102.59th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 0–1029th of 30 |
| 19th of 3015–20 | Road vs home | 10–2429th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 30 |
| 20th of 301454 | Elo rating | 132227th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+47 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles tendon−40 Elo
- Shaedon Sharpe left fibula stress reaction−6 Elo
Pacers
−32 Elo- Andrew Nembhard right calf contusion−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–33 | 29–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 15–14 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 21–19 | 26–33 |
| Overs–unders | 37–32 | 33–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 4–1 IND in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.