Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Aaron NesmithPoints32
- T.J. McConnellAssists11
- Jarace WalkerRebounds8
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints31
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists8
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–134
- Q420.3Ryan Rollins makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot123–134
- Q442.7Kobe Brown makes driving layup123–131
- Q457.3Thanasis Antetokounmpo enters the game for Kyle Kuzma121–131
- Q457.3Pete Nance enters the game for Bobby Portis121–131
- Q457.3Andre Jackson Jr. enters the game for Myles Turner121–131
- Q457.3Bobby Portis personal foul121–131
- Q41:00Myles Turner bad pass
turnover (Kam Jones steals)121–131
- Q41:20Taelon Peter makes 2-foot running dunk (Kam Jones assists)121–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:38Aaron Nesmith makes 22-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 70 – 67 MIL · IND 35% → 44% +9IND 35% → 44%+9 pts
- Q39:05Myles Turner makes 27-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)IND 72 – 70 MIL · MIL 50% → 59% +9MIL 50% → 59%+9 pts
- Q38:36AJ Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)IND 72 – 73 MIL · MIL 59% → 68% +9MIL 59% → 68%+9 pts
- Q31:21Taurean Prince makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)IND 88 – 94 MIL · MIL 73% → 82% +9MIL 73% → 82%+9 pts
- Q411:07Bobby Portis makes 23-foot three point jumper (Taurean Prince assists)IND 96 – 107 MIL · MIL 82% → 93% +11MIL 82% → 93%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -7.5
- ML IND +240 / MIL -298
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -3
- MIL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.2 pts
- MIL: Elo 61.6%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- MIL -255
- IND +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 110.0 – 117.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1334 | 1400 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −7 | +13 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +82 Elo | MIL 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 66.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30111.0 | Points scored | 110.828th of 30 |
| 25th of 30119.7 | Points allowed | 116.017th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.7 | Margin | −5.225th of 30 |
| 30th of 30107.6 | Offense rating | 111.025th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 116.225th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.7 | Pace | 99.425th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 2–824th of 30 |
| 29th of 305–28 | Road vs home | 15–1821st of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 27th of 301334 | Elo rating | 140023rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–38 | 28–38 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 8–16 |
| Underdog | 26–31 | 20–22 |
| Overs–unders | 31–36 | 28–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 13–10 MIL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 23.
- Feb 6IND 99 @ MIL 105Picked IND 53%Miss
- Dec 23MIL 111 @ IND 94Picked MIL 50%Hit
- Nov 3MIL 117 @ IND 115Picked MIL 69%Hit
- Apr 29MIL 118 @ IND 119PlayoffsPicked IND 76%Hit
- Apr 27IND 129 @ MIL 103PlayoffsPicked MIL 62%Miss
- Apr 25IND 101 @ MIL 117PlayoffsPicked MIL 64%Hit
- Apr 22MIL 115 @ IND 123PlayoffsPicked IND 61%Hit
- Apr 19MIL 98 @ IND 117PlayoffsPicked IND 67%Hit