Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Jarace WalkerPoints16
- T.J. McConnellAssists10
- Ivica ZubacRebounds7
Knicks- Josh HartPoints33
- Jose AlvaradoAssists10
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–136
- Q419.5shot clock turnover110–136
- Q442.3Kam Jones defensive rebound110–136
- Q446.0Kevin McCullar Jr. misses 25-foot three point jumper110–136
- Q448.9Jeremy Sochan offensive rebound110–136
- Q451.5Pacome Dadiet misses 24-foot three point jumper110–136
- Q41:00Mohamed Diawara defensive rebound110–136
- Q41:02Jarace Walker misses driving floating jump shot110–136
- Q41:16Jeremy Sochan makes two point shot (Pacome Dadiet assists)110–136
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:22Kobe Brown makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Quenton Jackson assists)IND 50 – 47 NY · IND 20% → 26% +6IND 20% → 26%+6 pts
- Q25:01Jarace Walker makes 23-foot running jump shot (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 57 – 51 NY · IND 27% → 34% +7IND 27% → 34%+7 pts
- Q24:07Aaron Nesmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 60 – 55 NY · IND 25% → 32% +7IND 25% → 32%+7 pts
- Q22:49Josh Hart makes 23-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)IND 62 – 60 NY · NY 67% → 74% +7NY 67% → 74%+7 pts
- Q21:40Jose Alvarado makes 23-foot running jump shot (OG Anunoby assists)IND 62 – 66 NY · NY 80% → 85% +5NY 80% → 85%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- NY -13.5
- ML IND +550 / NY -800
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -12
- NY 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- NY: Elo 87.8%, market 85.2%
- Fair odds
- NY -578
- IND +578 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 104.5 – 118.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1326 | 1648 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −13 | −40 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +343 Elo | NY 87.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 87.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 87.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 85.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30111.2 | Points scored | 117.010th of 30 |
| 26th of 30119.9 | Points allowed | 110.65th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.7 | Margin | +6.35th of 30 |
| 29th of 30107.8 | Offense rating | 117.03rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 110.66th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.6 | Pace | 99.424th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 30th of 305–29 | Road vs home | 24–94th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 30 |
| 27th of 301326 | Elo rating | 16484th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–39 | 36–34 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 29–28 |
| Underdog | 26–32 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 32–36 | 34–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 12–10 NY in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.
- Mar 13NY 101 @ IND 92Picked NY 84%Hit
- Feb 10IND 137 @ NY 134Picked NY 81%Miss
- Dec 18NY 114 @ IND 113Picked NY 59%Hit
- May 31NY 108 @ IND 125PlayoffsPicked IND 61%Hit
- May 29IND 94 @ NY 111PlayoffsPicked NY 63%Hit
- May 27NY 121 @ IND 130PlayoffsPicked IND 58%Hit
- May 25NY 106 @ IND 100PlayoffsPicked IND 52%Miss
- May 23IND 114 @ NY 109PlayoffsPicked NY 68%Miss