Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints26
- Jrue HolidayAssists12
- Donovan ClinganRebounds12
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints19
- Ayo DosunmuAssists8
- Rudy GobertRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–104
- Q48.6Julius Randle bad pass
turnover (Donovan Clingan steals)108–104
- Q49.6Jerami Grant makes free throw 2 of 2108–104
- Q49.6Matisse Thybulle enters the game for Deni Avdija107–104
- Q49.6Jerami Grant makes free throw 1 of 2107–104
- Q49.6Julius Randle personal take foul106–104
- Q49.6Jerami Grant defensive rebound106–104
- Q410.0Rudy Gobert misses tip shot106–104
- Q410.6Rudy Gobert offensive rebound106–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:10Ayo Dosunmu makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)POR 94 – 96 MIN · MIN 44% → 63% +19MIN 44% → 63%+19 pts
- Q42:48Julius Randle makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Ayo Dosunmu assists)POR 100 – 99 MIN · MIN 26% → 42% +16MIN 26% → 42%+16 pts
- Q41:40Jerami Grant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 103 – 100 MIN · POR 50% → 80% +30POR 50% → 80%+30 pts
- Q453.2Julius Randle makes 10-foot turnaround jump shotPOR 103 – 104 MIN · MIN 35% → 65% +30MIN 35% → 65%+30 pts
- Q422.2Jerami Grant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)POR 106 – 104 MIN · POR 28% → 88% +61POR 28% → 88%+61 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -1.5
- ML POR -105 / MIN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -0.5
- MIN 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- POR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 115.0 – 116.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +50 | −74 | POR: Missing Damian Lillard −41, Shaedon Sharpe −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +8 Elo | MIN 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.2 | Points scored | 118.84th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.3 | Points allowed | 114.914th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.0 | Margin | +3.98th of 30 |
| 24th of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 115.49th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 111.610th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.2 | Pace | 102.410th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 17th of 3016–20 | Road vs home | 24–127th of 30 |
| 5th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149325th of 30 |
| 20th of 301457 | Elo rating | 155312th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+50 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles tendon−41 Elo
- Shaedon Sharpe left fibula stress reaction−6 Elo
Timberwolves
−74 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–34 | 30–40 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–15 | 23–33 |
| Underdog | 21–19 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 38–32 | 33–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 2–9 MIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.
- Feb 24MIN 124 @ POR 121Picked MIN 68%Hit
- Feb 11POR 109 @ MIN 133Picked MIN 71%Hit
- Oct 22MIN 118 @ POR 114Picked MIN 63%Hit
- Feb 8POR 98 @ MIN 114Picked MIN 59%Hit
- Nov 13MIN 98 @ POR 106Picked MIN 80%Miss
- Nov 12MIN 108 @ POR 122Picked MIN 72%Miss
- Nov 8POR 102 @ MIN 127Picked MIN 84%Hit
- Mar 4POR 114 @ MIN 119Picked MIN 71%Hit