Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints32
- Julius RandleAssists6
- Donte DiVincenzoRebounds9
Thunder- Chet HolmgrenPoints21
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists10
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–116
- Q41.2shot clock turnover103–116
- Q41.2Timberwolves offensive team rebound103–116
- Q42.0Rocco Zikarsky misses 18-foot jump bank shot103–116
- Q43.4Timberwolves offensive team rebound103–116
- Q45.8Cason Wallace blocks Jaylen Clark 's 26-foot three point jumper103–116
- Q423.8Jaylen Clark defensive rebound103–116
- Q427.4Jared McCain misses 27-foot three point jumper103–116
- Q428.9Jaylin Williams offensive rebound103–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:06Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 24-foot three pointerMIN 56 – 52 OKC · OKC 49% → 58% +9OKC 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q37:36Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)MIN 66 – 59 OKC · MIN 45% → 55% +10MIN 45% → 55%+10 pts
- Q35:19Isaiah Joe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)MIN 68 – 66 OKC · OKC 50% → 60% +10OKC 50% → 60%+10 pts
- Q33:02Isaiah Joe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)MIN 71 – 71 OKC · OKC 55% → 65% +11OKC 55% → 65%+11 pts
- Q31:01Jaylin Williams makes 22-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)MIN 73 – 78 OKC · OKC 71% → 81% +9OKC 71% → 81%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -8.5
- ML MIN +300 / OKC -380
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -10.5
- OKC 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.5 pts
- OKC: Elo 84.5%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- OKC -317
- MIN +317 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 109.5 – 118.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1721 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −15 | +31 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | MIN crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +295 Elo | OKC 84.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 74.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 75.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 76.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30118.7 | Points scored | 118.66th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 107.82nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.5 | Margin | +10.81st of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.3 | Offense rating | 116.35th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 105.71st of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.4 | Pace | 100.919th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 8th of 3019–14 | Road vs home | 28–61st of 30 |
| 26th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149525th of 30 |
| 16th of 301533 | Elo rating | 17211st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–39 | 31–36 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–33 | 28–35 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 32–35 | 35–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 7–9 OKC in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.
- Jan 29OKC 111 @ MIN 123Picked OKC 64%Miss
- Dec 19OKC 107 @ MIN 112Picked OKC 69%Miss
- Nov 26MIN 105 @ OKC 113Picked OKC 79%Hit
- May 28MIN 94 @ OKC 124PlayoffsPicked OKC 75%Hit
- May 26OKC 128 @ MIN 126PlayoffsPicked OKC 57%Hit
- May 24OKC 101 @ MIN 143PlayoffsPicked OKC 57%Miss
- May 22MIN 103 @ OKC 118PlayoffsPicked OKC 74%Hit
- May 20MIN 88 @ OKC 114PlayoffsPicked OKC 71%Hit