Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints34
- Collin GillespieAssists7
- Oso IghodaroRebounds10
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints32
- Kyle AndersonAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–116
- Q421.7shot clock turnover104–116
- Q444.6Julius Randle defensive rebound104–116
- Q446.8Jamaree Bouyea misses 16-foot pullup jump shot104–116
- Q41:04Bones Hyland makes free throw 2 of 2104–116
- Q41:04Jamaree Bouyea enters the game for Jordan Goodwin104–115
- Q41:04Isaiah Livers enters the game for Collin Gillespie104–115
- Q41:04Rasheer Fleming enters the game for Oso Ighodaro104–115
- Q41:04Khaman Maluach enters the game for Devin Booker104–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:44Collin Gillespie makes 24-foot three pointer (Jalen Green assists)PHX 66 – 64 MIN · PHX 40% → 49% +9PHX 40% → 49%+9 pts
- Q311:17Julius Randle makes 24-foot three pointer (Jaden McDaniels assists)PHX 66 – 67 MIN · MIN 51% → 60% +9MIN 51% → 60%+9 pts
- Q311:00Collin Gillespie makes 27-foot three pointerPHX 69 – 67 MIN · PHX 40% → 49% +9PHX 40% → 49%+9 pts
- Q33:12Ryan Dunn makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 80 – 80 MIN · PHX 34% → 44% +11PHX 34% → 44%+11 pts
- Q32:46Bones Hyland makes 22-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)PHX 80 – 83 MIN · MIN 56% → 67% +11MIN 56% → 67%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -3.5
- ML PHX +142 / MIN -170
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -0.5
- MIN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 48.8%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -152
- PHX +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 109.0 – 112.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +4 | −74 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +9 Elo | PHX 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 67.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 65.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30112.5 | Points scored | 118.55th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.3 | Points allowed | 115.215th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +3.311th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 115.19th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 111.911th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.1 | Pace | 102.311th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 14th of 3017–16 | Road vs home | 22–129th of 30 |
| 4th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301535 | Elo rating | 153015th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−74 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–27 | 28–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–12 | 21–33 |
| Underdog | 20–15 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 30–38 | 32–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 5–8 MIN in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.
- Dec 8PHX 108 @ MIN 105Picked MIN 76%Miss
- Nov 21MIN 113 @ PHX 114Picked MIN 64%Miss
- Mar 28PHX 109 @ MIN 124Picked MIN 73%Hit
- Mar 2MIN 116 @ PHX 98Picked MIN 51%Hit
- Jan 29MIN 121 @ PHX 113Picked PHX 51%Miss
- Nov 17PHX 117 @ MIN 120Picked MIN 72%Hit
- Apr 28MIN 122 @ PHX 116PlayoffsPicked MIN 58%Hit
- Apr 26MIN 126 @ PHX 109PlayoffsPicked MIN 55%Hit