Utah Jazz at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Brice SensabaughPoints41
- Isaiah CollierAssists6
- Andersson GarciaRebounds8
Timberwolves- Ayo DosunmuPoints23
- Julius RandleAssists8
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–147
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–147
- Q44.2shot clock turnover111–147
- Q429.2Joe Ingles makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Zyon Pullin assists)111–147
- Q446.9Brice Sensabaugh makes two point shot111–144
- Q449.5Brice Sensabaugh defensive rebound109–144
- Q452.5Jaylen Clark misses 22-foot three point jumper109–144
- Q41:04Joan Beringer defensive rebound109–144
- Q41:06Elijah Harkless misses two point shot109–144
- Q41:07Elijah Harkless offensive rebound109–144
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:04Ace Bailey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 8 – 4 MIN · UTAH 17% → 21% +4UTAH 17% → 21%+4 pts
- Q19:53Ayo Dosunmu makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)UTAH 8 – 7 MIN · MIN 79% → 83% +4MIN 79% → 83%+4 pts
- Q19:39Brice Sensabaugh makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 11 – 7 MIN · UTAH 17% → 21% +4UTAH 17% → 21%+4 pts
- Q18:43Ace Bailey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 14 – 9 MIN · UTAH 18% → 23% +5UTAH 18% → 23%+5 pts
- Q12:22Bones Hyland makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)UTAH 28 – 30 MIN · MIN 81% → 85% +4MIN 81% → 85%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -12.5
- ML UTAH +550 / MIN -800
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -6.5
- MIN 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 74.2%, market 85.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -578
- UTAH +578 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 109.5 – 122.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1315 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −19 | −81 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | UTAH crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +184 Elo | MIN 74.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 86.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 85.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 85.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 118.46th of 30 |
| 30th of 30124.9 | Points allowed | 115.015th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.6 | Margin | +3.410th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 115.29th of 30 |
| 30th of 30119.5 | Defense rating | 111.811th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.5 | Pace | 102.311th of 30 |
| 23rd of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–26 | Road vs home | 23–127th of 30 |
| 4th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301315 | Elo rating | 154213th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−81 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–32 | 29–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 22–33 |
| Underdog | 31–30 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 39–29 | 32–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–9 MIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.
- Jan 20MIN 122 @ UTAH 127Picked MIN 83%Miss
- Nov 10MIN 120 @ UTAH 113Picked MIN 72%Hit
- Nov 7UTAH 97 @ MIN 137Picked MIN 84%Hit
- Apr 13UTAH 105 @ MIN 116Picked MIN 95%Hit
- Mar 16UTAH 102 @ MIN 128Picked MIN 85%Hit
- Feb 28MIN 116 @ UTAH 117Picked MIN 62%Miss
- Jan 30MIN 138 @ UTAH 113Picked MIN 68%Hit
- Mar 18MIN 114 @ UTAH 104Picked MIN 55%Hit