Utah Jazz at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Cody WilliamsPoints34
- Cody WilliamsAssists7
- Andersson GarciaRebounds11
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints41
- DeMar DeRozanAssists11
- Maxime RaynaudRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–116
- Q43.8Killian Hayes defensive rebound111–116
- Q46.1Cody Williams misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot111–116
- Q411.7Andersson Garcia defensive rebound111–116
- Q414.9DeMar DeRozan misses free throw 2 of 2111–116
- Q414.9DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 1 of 2111–116
- Q414.9Bez Mbeng personal take foul111–115
- Q415.8Kings offensive team rebound111–115
- Q418.4Maxime Raynaud misses 24-foot three point jumper111–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q351.4Blake Hinson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Elijah Harkless assists)UTAH 85 – 87 SAC · UTAH 27% → 37% +11UTAH 27% → 37%+11 pts
- Q311.5Andersson Garcia makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bez Mbeng assists)UTAH 88 – 89 SAC · UTAH 30% → 41% +11UTAH 30% → 41%+11 pts
- Q43:19Elijah Harkless makes 27-foot three pointer (Cody Williams assists)UTAH 107 – 110 SAC · UTAH 11% → 26% +15UTAH 11% → 26%+15 pts
- Q42:01Cody Williams makes driving layupUTAH 111 – 113 SAC · UTAH 14% → 29% +15UTAH 14% → 29%+15 pts
- Q41:16Precious Achiuwa makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (DeMar DeRozan assists)UTAH 111 – 115 SAC · SAC 75% → 91% +16SAC 75% → 91%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -3.5
- ML UTAH +136 / SAC -162
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -0.5
- SAC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- SAC: Elo 51.8%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- SAC -146
- UTAH +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 113.5 – 117.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1322 | 1389 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +4 | −46 | UTAH: Missing Kyle Filipowski −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · SAC: Missing Malik Monk −9, Devin Carter −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +13 Elo | SAC 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 52.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 110.829th of 30 |
| 30th of 30125.0 | Points allowed | 120.728th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.7 | Margin | −10.029th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 108.528th of 30 |
| 30th of 30119.6 | Defense rating | 118.328th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.5 | Pace | 101.415th of 30 |
| 23rd of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–25 | Road vs home | 11–2328th of 30 |
| 4th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 15122nd of 30 |
| 28th of 301322 | Elo rating | 138925th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+4 Elo- Kyle Filipowski rest−3 Elo
Kings
−46 Elo- Malik Monk right ankle soreness−9 Elo
- Devin Carter right calf contusion−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–31 | 28–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 31–29 | 25–36 |
| Overs–unders | 39–28 | 33–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–8 SAC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.
- Feb 11SAC 93 @ UTAH 121Picked UTAH 64%Hit
- Nov 28SAC 119 @ UTAH 128Picked UTAH 56%Hit
- Oct 24UTAH 104 @ SAC 105Picked SAC 67%Hit
- Feb 26SAC 118 @ UTAH 101Picked SAC 77%Hit
- Dec 8UTAH 97 @ SAC 141Picked SAC 83%Hit
- Nov 16UTAH 117 @ SAC 121Picked SAC 71%Hit
- Oct 29SAC 113 @ UTAH 96Picked SAC 69%Hit
- Mar 31UTAH 106 @ SAC 127Picked SAC 75%Hit