Charlotte Hornets at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints30
- LaMelo BallAssists5
- Moussa DiabateRebounds10
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints39
- Nique CliffordAssists8
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–109
- Q422.8LaMelo Ball enters the game for Josh Green117–109
- Q422.8DeMar DeRozan steps out of bounds turnover117–109
- Q423.8Josh Green enters the game for LaMelo Ball117–109
- Q423.8Kings Full timeout117–109
- Q423.8LaMelo Ball makes free throw 2 of 2117–109
- Q423.8LaMelo Ball makes free throw 1 of 2116–109
- Q423.8Nique Clifford personal take foul115–109
- Q427.6Nique Clifford makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Killian Hayes assists)115–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:10Kon Knueppel makes 26-foot three point jumper (Sion James assists)CHA 38 – 44 SAC · CHA 63% → 70% +7CHA 63% → 70%+7 pts
- Q26:36Coby White makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)CHA 42 – 47 SAC · CHA 65% → 72% +7CHA 65% → 72%+7 pts
- Q24:32Brandon Miller makes 25-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 49 – 53 SAC · CHA 66% → 73% +7CHA 66% → 73%+7 pts
- Q38:11LaMelo Ball makes 34-foot three point jumperCHA 70 – 69 SAC · CHA 72% → 79% +8CHA 72% → 79%+8 pts
- Q37:21Kon Knueppel makes 27-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)CHA 73 – 71 SAC · CHA 74% → 81% +7CHA 74% → 81%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 87%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -14.5
- ML CHA -1000 / SAC +650
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -10.5
- CHA 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- CHA: Elo 84.3%, market 87.2%
- Fair odds
- CHA -682
- SAC +682 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 119.5 – 105.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1369 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | SAC and CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +60 | −68 | CHA: Missing Ryan Kalkbrenner −10 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · SAC: Missing Dylan Cardwell −12, Devin Carter −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +291 Elo | CHA 84.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 84.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 84.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 87.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 110.729th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 120.928th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+3.4 | Margin | −10.329th of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 108.328th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 118.428th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.6 | Pace | 101.615th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 12th of 3019–16 | Road vs home | 11–2227th of 30 |
| 29th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 15112nd of 30 |
| 10th of 301569 | Elo rating | 136925th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+60 Elo- Ryan Kalkbrenner illness−10 Elo
Kings
−68 Elo- Dylan Cardwell left ankle sprain−12 Elo
- Devin Carter right calf−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–25 | 26–40 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–9 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 27–16 | 23–36 |
| Overs–unders | 25–41 | 32–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 1–3 SAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.