Sacramento Kings at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints27
- Russell WestbrookAssists10
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds13
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints31
- Darius GarlandAssists7
- Isaiah JacksonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–109
- Q42.7shot clock turnover118–109
- Q426.7Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 2 of 2118–109
- Q426.7TyTy Washington Jr. enters the game for Kris Dunn118–108
- Q426.7Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 1 of 2118–108
- Q426.7Bennedict Mathurin makes technical free throw118–107
- Q426.7Russell Westbrook technical foul118–106
- Q426.7Nique Clifford personal foul118–106
- Q440.7Nique Clifford makes 26-foot three pointer (Daeqwon Plowden assists)118–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:43DeMar DeRozan makes 12-foot turnaround jump shotSAC 103 – 98 LAC · SAC 56% → 68% +13SAC 56% → 68%+13 pts
- Q44:15Bennedict Mathurin makes 12-foot pullup jump shotSAC 103 – 100 LAC · LAC 29% → 42% +13LAC 29% → 42%+13 pts
- Q43:48Russell Westbrook makes 26-foot three point jumper (Precious Achiuwa assists)SAC 106 – 100 LAC · SAC 60% → 79% +19SAC 60% → 79%+19 pts
- Q43:24Isaiah Jackson makes two point shotSAC 106 – 102 LAC · LAC 19% → 31% +12LAC 19% → 31%+12 pts
- Q43:01Daeqwon Plowden makes 23-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)SAC 109 – 102 LAC · SAC 71% → 88% +17SAC 71% → 88%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 87%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -13.5
- ML SAC +625 / LAC -950
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -11
- LAC 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- LAC: Elo 85.3%, market 86.8%
- Fair odds
- LAC -656
- SAC +656 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 109.0 – 122.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1367 | 1611 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −38 | +28 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +306 Elo | LAC 85.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 85.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 85.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 86.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30110.6 | Points scored | 113.523rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30120.9 | Points allowed | 112.510th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.2 | Margin | +1.017th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 114.911th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.4 | Defense rating | 113.919th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.5 | Pace | 98.328th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 28th of 305–28 | Road vs home | 19–1313th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 26th of 301367 | Elo rating | 16117th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–40 | 36–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 15–18 |
| Underdog | 24–36 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 33–34 | 36–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 2–8 LAC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Feb 6LAC 114 @ SAC 111Picked LAC 60%Hit
- Dec 30SAC 90 @ LAC 131Picked LAC 76%Hit
- Apr 11LAC 101 @ SAC 100Picked LAC 70%Hit
- Mar 9SAC 110 @ LAC 111Picked LAC 68%Hit
- Nov 22SAC 88 @ LAC 104Picked SAC 60%Miss
- Nov 8LAC 107 @ SAC 98Picked SAC 68%Miss
- Apr 2LAC 95 @ SAC 109Picked SAC 59%Hit
- Feb 25SAC 123 @ LAC 107Picked LAC 61%Miss