Chicago Bulls at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Tre JonesPoints21
- Josh GiddeyAssists10
- Josh GiddeyRebounds11
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints28
- Kris DunnAssists6
- Brook LopezRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–119
- Q414.5Bennedict Mathurin defensive rebound108–119
- Q417.7Nick Richards misses 25-foot three point jumper108–119
- Q426.7Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 2 of 2108–119
- Q426.7Yuki Kawamura enters the game for Tre Jones108–118
- Q426.7Lachlan Olbrich enters the game for Matas Buzelis108–118
- Q426.7Rob Dillingham enters the game for Josh Giddey108–118
- Q426.7Kobe Sanders enters the game for Kawhi Leonard108–118
- Q426.7Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 1 of 2108–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:09Brook Lopez makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)CHI 72 – 78 LAC · LAC 82% → 88% +6LAC 82% → 88%+6 pts
- Q34:06Rob Dillingham makes 24-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 79 – 78 LAC · CHI 21% → 30% +9CHI 21% → 30%+9 pts
- Q33:50Brook Lopez makes driving layup (Nicolas Batum assists)CHI 79 – 80 LAC · LAC 70% → 76% +6LAC 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q33:41Rob Dillingham makes 22-foot pullup jump shotCHI 81 – 80 LAC · CHI 24% → 30% +6CHI 24% → 30%+6 pts
- Q33:20Derrick Jones Jr. makes tip shotCHI 81 – 82 LAC · LAC 70% → 76% +6LAC 70% → 76%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -13.5
- ML CHI +575 / LAC -850
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -10.5
- LAC 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- LAC: Elo 84.8%, market 85.8%
- Fair odds
- LAC -604
- CHI +604 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 111.0 – 124.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1382 | 1608 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −11 | −14 | CHI: Missing Jalen Smith −17 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +299 Elo | LAC 84.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 84.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 84.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 85.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 113.423rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.2 | Points allowed | 112.610th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−4.4 | Margin | +0.816th of 30 |
| 24th of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 114.911th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.8 | Defense rating | 114.119th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.2 | Pace | 98.228th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3011–21 | Road vs home | 18–1313th of 30 |
| 7th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15049th of 30 |
| 24th of 301382 | Elo rating | 16087th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−11 Elo- Jalen Smith right calf strain−17 Elo
Clippers
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–37 | 36–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 6–19 | 15–17 |
| Underdog | 23–18 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 30–36 | 36–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–3 LAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.