Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints23
- Deni AvdijaAssists14
- Donovan ClinganRebounds13
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints22
- Nikola JokicAssists14
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–128
- Q415.4Double technical foul: DaRon Holmes II and Sidy Cissoko112–128
- Q415.4DaRon Holmes II offensive foul turnover112–128
- Q415.4DaRon Holmes II offensive charge112–128
- Q438.2Tyus Jones defensive rebound112–128
- Q441.9Sidy Cissoko misses 26-foot three point jumper112–128
- Q448.3DaRon Holmes II out of bounds lost ball turnover112–128
- Q41:05Blake Wesley out of bounds bad pass turnover112–128
- Q41:13DaRon Holmes II offensive foul turnover112–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:53Jamal Murray makes 26-foot three pointerPOR 46 – 49 DEN · DEN 70% → 77% +6DEN 70% → 77%+6 pts
- Q26:18Christian Braun makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)POR 55 – 59 DEN · DEN 72% → 78% +6DEN 72% → 78%+6 pts
- Q25:28Toumani Camara makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 58 – 61 DEN · POR 18% → 24% +6POR 18% → 24%+6 pts
- Q23:03Toumani Camara makes 26-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 63 – 67 DEN · POR 17% → 22% +6POR 17% → 22%+6 pts
- Q21:28Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three pointerPOR 67 – 72 DEN · DEN 73% → 80% +7DEN 73% → 80%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -8.5
- ML POR +270 / DEN -340
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -5.5
- DEN 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- DEN: Elo 71.5%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- DEN -286
- POR +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 114.5 – 123.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1592 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +52 | +47 | POR: Missing Damian Lillard −44, Shaedon Sharpe −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +160 Elo | DEN 71.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 68.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.1 | Points scored | 120.71st of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.1 | Points allowed | 116.519th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.0 | Margin | +4.27th of 30 |
| 24th of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 119.21st of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 115.022nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.2 | Pace | 100.121st of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 17th of 3017–20 | Road vs home | 20–1313th of 30 |
| 6th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 20th of 301464 | Elo rating | 15928th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+52 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles rehab−44 Elo
- Shaedon Sharpe left fibula stress reaction−7 Elo
Nuggets
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–34 | 39–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–15 | 23–25 |
| Underdog | 22–19 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 38–33 | 42–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 3–7 DEN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Feb 20DEN 157 @ POR 103Picked DEN 53%Hit
- Oct 31DEN 107 @ POR 109Picked DEN 67%Miss
- Mar 21DEN 109 @ POR 128Picked DEN 54%Miss
- Feb 12POR 121 @ DEN 132Picked DEN 78%Hit
- Feb 10POR 117 @ DEN 146Picked DEN 78%Hit
- Dec 19DEN 124 @ POR 126Picked DEN 75%Miss
- Mar 23DEN 114 @ POR 111Picked DEN 62%Hit
- Feb 23DEN 127 @ POR 112Picked DEN 52%Hit