Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints29
- Jamal MurrayAssists12
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–125
- Q41.7Nuggets offensive team rebound118–125
- Q41.7Jamal Murray misses heave jump shot118–125
- Q44.5
Cedric Coward makes free throw 2 of 2118–125 - Q44.5Cedric Coward makes free throw 1 of 2118–124
- Q44.5Jamal Murray personal take foul118–123
- Q46.7Jamal Murray makes 32-foot three pointer118–123
- Q414.8Walter Clayton Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2115–123
- Q414.8Walter Clayton Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2115–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:05Taylor Hendricks makes 26-foot three point jumper (Javon Small assists)DEN 86 – 91 MEM · MEM 35% → 46% +11MEM 35% → 46%+11 pts
- Q31:19Javon Small makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotDEN 89 – 99 MEM · MEM 56% → 67% +11MEM 56% → 67%+11 pts
- Q46:34Nikola Jokic makes 1-foot dunk (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 103 – 107 MEM · DEN 32% → 43% +11DEN 32% → 43%+11 pts
- Q45:45Nikola Jokic makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 105 – 107 MEM · DEN 40% → 52% +12DEN 40% → 52%+12 pts
- Q45:33GG Jackson makes 25-foot three pointerDEN 105 – 110 MEM · MEM 48% → 66% +18MEM 48% → 66%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -12.5
- ML DEN -750 / MEM +525
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -5.5
- DEN 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.7 pts
- DEN: Elo 70.0%, market 84.7%
- Fair odds
- DEN -551
- MEM +551 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 129.5 – 117.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 246.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1601 | 1392 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +32 | +6 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +147 Elo | DEN 70.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 79.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 78.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 84.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30120.7 | Points scored | 115.615th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.4 | Points allowed | 118.624th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.4 | Margin | −3.021st of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.3 | Offense rating | 111.423rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 114.320th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.0 | Pace | 103.45th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–823rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3023–14 | Road vs home | 11–2025th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149623rd of 30 |
| 7th of 301601 | Elo rating | 139223rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–30 | 31–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–23 | 10–9 |
| Underdog | 16–7 | 21–27 |
| Overs–unders | 42–27 | 33–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 8–1 MEM in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.
- Feb 11MEM 116 @ DEN 122Picked DEN 84%Hit
- Nov 24DEN 125 @ MEM 115Picked DEN 70%Hit
- Apr 11MEM 109 @ DEN 117Picked DEN 72%Hit
- Nov 19DEN 122 @ MEM 110Picked MEM 67%Miss
- Nov 17DEN 90 @ MEM 105Picked MEM 67%Hit
- Apr 14DEN 126 @ MEM 111Picked DEN 73%Hit
- Mar 25MEM 103 @ DEN 128Picked DEN 65%Hit
- Dec 28MEM 105 @ DEN 142Picked DEN 77%Hit