Memphis Grizzlies at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Cedric CowardPoints17
- Walter Clayton Jr.Assists7
- Tyler BurtonRebounds8
Bulls- Matas BuzelisPoints29
- Josh GiddeyAssists13
- Josh GiddeyRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–132
- Q45.1shot clock turnover107–132
- Q426.6Yuki Kawamura defensive rebound107–132
- Q428.5Rayan Rupert misses 8-foot pullup jump shot107–132
- Q439.0Yuki Kawamura out of bounds bad pass turnover107–132
- Q450.1Rob Dillingham defensive rebound107–132
- Q452.4Rayan Rupert misses 24-foot three point jumper107–132
- Q41:11Patrick Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Yuki Kawamura assists)107–132
- Q41:33Taylor Hendricks makes running layup (Cedric Coward assists)107–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:23Matas Buzelis makes 24-foot three point jumper (Guerschon Yabusele assists)MEM 42 – 44 CHI · CHI 64% → 71% +7CHI 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q23:52Guerschon Yabusele makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)MEM 44 – 47 CHI · CHI 66% → 73% +7CHI 66% → 73%+7 pts
- Q23:29Cedric Coward makes 24-foot three point jumper (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)MEM 47 – 47 CHI · MEM 27% → 34% +7MEM 27% → 34%+7 pts
- Q23:08Jahmai Mashack makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cedric Coward assists)MEM 50 – 49 CHI · MEM 29% → 37% +8MEM 29% → 37%+8 pts
- Q311:20Leonard Miller makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)MEM 59 – 64 CHI · CHI 70% → 77% +7CHI 70% → 77%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -7.5
- ML MEM +225 / CHI -278
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -3
- CHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.4 pts
- CHI: Elo 61.1%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- CHI -239
- MEM +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 118.0 – 125.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 243.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1406 | 1379 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −90 | +3 | MEM: Missing GG Jackson −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | CHI crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +78 Elo | CHI 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 67.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 66.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 115.712th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.4 | Points allowed | 120.227th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.7 | Margin | −4.523rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 111.124th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 115.823rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.4 | Pace | 104.22nd of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3011–22 | Road vs home | 16–1820th of 30 |
| 24th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15067th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301406 | Elo rating | 137926th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−90 Elo- GG Jackson right foot−5 Elo
Bulls
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–35 | 30–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–9 | 6–19 |
| Underdog | 21–26 | 24–18 |
| Overs–unders | 33–33 | 30–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 1–3 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.