Philadelphia 76ers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- MarJon BeauchampPoints16
- Trendon WatfordAssists6
- Andre DrummondRebounds10
Nuggets- Christian BraunPoints22
- Nikola JokicAssists14
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–124
- Q414.4shot clock turnover96–124
- Q438.9Dalen Terry makes running dunk (Trendon Watford assists)96–124
- Q443.0Jalen Pickett bad pass
turnover (Trendon Watford steals)94–124
- Q459.1Nuggets defensive team rebound94–124
- Q41:00MarJon Beauchamp misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot94–124
- Q41:07Jalen Pickett makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)94–124
- Q41:20Andre Drummond makes 2-foot dunk (Trendon Watford assists)94–121
- Q41:39Trendon Watford defensive rebound92–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:29Adem Bona makes running dunk (VJ Edgecombe assists)PHI 4 – 4 DEN · PHI 10% → 12% +2PHI 10% → 12%+2 pts
- Q18:46Christian Braun makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)PHI 4 – 11 DEN · DEN 92% → 94% +2DEN 92% → 94%+2 pts
- Q17:47Aaron Gordon makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)PHI 7 – 14 DEN · DEN 92% → 94% +2DEN 92% → 94%+2 pts
- Q15:51Quentin Grimes makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 14 – 20 DEN · PHI 5% → 7% +2PHI 5% → 7%+2 pts
- Q15:15Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)PHI 14 – 23 DEN · DEN 93% → 95% +2DEN 93% → 95%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -15.5
- ML PHI +750 / DEN -1200
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -9.5
- DEN 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- DEN: Elo 82.7%, market 88.7%
- Fair odds
- DEN -785
- PHI +785 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 110.0 – 125.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1595 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −101 | +65 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +272 Elo | DEN 82.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 83.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 83.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 88.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 120.71st of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 116.720th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +4.08th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 119.31st of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 115.322nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.4 | Pace | 99.922nd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 13th of 3017–15 | Road vs home | 18–1313th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 17th of 301513 | Elo rating | 15957th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−101 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–31 | 38–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–15 | 22–23 |
| Underdog | 16–16 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 35–33 | 42–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–4 DEN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.