Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Jakob PoeltlPoints23
- Scottie BarnesAssists8
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds11
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints31
- Nikola JokicAssists9
- Nikola JokicRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–121
- Q41.1Nuggets defensive team rebound115–121
- Q44.3Brandon Ingram misses 24-foot three point jumper115–121
- Q46.2Christian Braun enters the game for Cameron Johnson115–121
- Q46.2Bruce Brown enters the game for Jamal Murray115–121
- Q46.2Raptors Full timeout115–121
- Q46.2Aaron Gordon makes free throw 2 of 2115–121
- Q46.2Nuggets offensive team rebound115–120
- Q46.2Aaron Gordon misses free throw 1 of 2115–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:39Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumperTOR 101 – 104 DEN · DEN 57% → 74% +17DEN 57% → 74%+17 pts
- Q43:14Brandon Ingram makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jakob Poeltl assists)TOR 106 – 107 DEN · TOR 17% → 37% +19TOR 17% → 37%+19 pts
- Q41:45Aaron Gordon makes layup (Jamal Murray assists)TOR 110 – 113 DEN · DEN 65% → 82% +18DEN 65% → 82%+18 pts
- Q459.6Jakob Poeltl makes 2-foot reverse layup (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 114 – 115 DEN · TOR 12% → 33% +21TOR 12% → 33%+21 pts
- Q444.9Nikola Jokic makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)TOR 115 – 117 DEN · DEN 53% → 82% +29DEN 53% → 82%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -6.5
- ML TOR +220 / DEN -270
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -5
- DEN 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- DEN: Elo 68.4%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- DEN -234
- TOR +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 116.5 – 123.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1588 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +40 | +58 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +134 Elo | DEN 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 68.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 68.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.0 | Points scored | 120.71st of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 116.519th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +4.27th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 119.11st of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 114.922nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.3 | Pace | 100.121st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 6th of 3020–13 | Road vs home | 19–1313th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 18th of 301508 | Elo rating | 15889th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–33 | 39–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–21 | 23–24 |
| Underdog | 16–12 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 27–41 | 42–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 0–5 DEN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.