Toronto Raptors at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints23
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists7
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds8
Bulls- Matas BuzelisPoints19
- Collin SextonAssists5
- Matas BuzelisRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game139–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter139–109
- Q417.3Yuki Kawamura makes free throw 2 of 2139–109
- Q417.3Yuki Kawamura makes free throw 1 of 2139–108
- Q417.3Garrett Temple personal foul139–107
- Q423.8Bulls offensive team rebound139–107
- Q425.8Yuki Kawamura misses 17-foot pullup jump shot139–107
- Q438.9Gradey Dick makes 25-foot three point jumper (Garrett Temple assists)139–107
- Q445.8Jonathan Mogbo defensive rebound136–107
- Q450.8Leonard Miller misses 25-foot three point jumper136–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:41RJ Barrett makes 25-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 5 – 0 CHI · TOR 75% → 79% +5TOR 75% → 79%+5 pts
- Q19:44Brandon Ingram makes 23-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 8 – 0 CHI · TOR 79% → 84% +4TOR 79% → 84%+4 pts
- Q18:29Josh Giddey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Smith assists)TOR 10 – 5 CHI · CHI 16% → 21% +4CHI 16% → 21%+4 pts
- Q17:57Leonard Miller makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)TOR 12 – 8 CHI · CHI 18% → 22% +5CHI 18% → 22%+5 pts
- Q17:07RJ Barrett makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)TOR 17 – 10 CHI · TOR 77% → 82% +5TOR 77% → 82%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -7.5
- ML TOR -290 / CHI +235
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -2.5
- TOR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 60.1%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- TOR -249
- CHI +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 122.5 – 115.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1393 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +42 | +33 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +71 Elo | TOR 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 70.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 69.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30113.6 | Points scored | 116.012th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 120.026th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −4.022nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 111.324th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 115.623rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.1 | Pace | 104.22nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 7th of 3019–13 | Road vs home | 17–1820th of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15049th of 30 |
| 19th of 301491 | Elo rating | 139323rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–33 | 31–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–21 | 7–19 |
| Underdog | 16–12 | 24–18 |
| Overs–unders | 26–41 | 30–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–6 CHI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Feb 19TOR 110 @ CHI 101Picked TOR 66%Hit
- Feb 5CHI 107 @ TOR 123Picked TOR 73%Hit
- Apr 1TOR 118 @ CHI 137Picked CHI 61%Hit
- Feb 28TOR 115 @ CHI 125Picked CHI 52%Hit
- Jan 31CHI 122 @ TOR 106Picked TOR 60%Miss
- Dec 16CHI 122 @ TOR 121Picked CHI 51%Hit
- Jan 30TOR 118 @ CHI 107Picked CHI 70%Miss
- Jan 18CHI 116 @ TOR 110Picked CHI 56%Hit