Brooklyn Nets at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Ben SarafPoints22
- Ben SarafAssists5
- Danny WolfRebounds4
Kings- Malik MonkPoints32
- DeMar DeRozanAssists8
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–126
- Q40.1Nets offensive team rebound122–126
- Q40.1Ben Saraf misses 20-foot step back jumpshot122–126
- Q45.8Maxime Raynaud makes free throw 2 of 2122–126
- Q45.8Precious Achiuwa enters the game for Doug McDermott122–125
- Q45.8Kings offensive team rebound122–125
- Q45.8Maxime Raynaud misses free throw 1 of 2122–125
- Q45.8Nolan Traore personal take foul122–125
- Q46.2(00:06.2) [Nets] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Nets] charged with a timeout122–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:41Nolan Traore makes 26-foot three point jumper (Malachi Smith assists)BKN 102 – 103 SAC · BKN 23% → 37% +14BKN 23% → 37%+14 pts
- Q46:27Patrick Baldwin Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)BKN 102 – 106 SAC · SAC 63% → 77% +15SAC 63% → 77%+15 pts
- Q418.2Nolan Traore makes driving layupBKN 120 – 121 SAC · BKN 2% → 24% +22BKN 2% → 24%+22 pts
- Q413.5Malik Monk makes free throw 1 of 2BKN 120 – 122 SAC · SAC 79% → 94% +15SAC 79% → 94%+15 pts
- Q49.5Nolan Traore makes free throw 2 of 2BKN 122 – 123 SAC · BKN 3% → 18% +14BKN 3% → 18%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -6.5
- ML BKN +205 / SAC -250
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -5
- SAC 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- SAC: Elo 68.3%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- SAC -218
- BKN +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 106.0 – 112.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1302 | 1373 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −61 | −35 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +133 Elo | SAC 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 66.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30106.2 | Points scored | 110.829th of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 121.028th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.2 | Margin | −10.229th of 30 |
| 30th of 30107.2 | Offense rating | 108.627th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.5 | Defense rating | 118.628th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.5 | Pace | 101.517th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–27 | Road vs home | 12–2527th of 30 |
| 1st of 301516 | Opponent Elo | 15122nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301302 | Elo rating | 137325th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−61 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–38 | 29–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 28–37 | 25–38 |
| Overs–unders | 31–39 | 35–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 1–3 SAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.