Philadelphia 76ers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- VJ EdgecombePoints38
- VJ EdgecombeAssists11
- Andre DrummondRebounds11
Kings- Maxime RaynaudPoints30
- Russell WestbrookAssists8
- Dylan CardwellRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game139–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter139–118
- Q40.7Daeqwon Plowden makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dylan Cardwell assists)139–118
- Q46.4Dylan Cardwell offensive rebound139–115
- Q47.3Doug McDermott misses 28-foot three point jumper139–115
- Q49.5Doug McDermott offensive rebound139–115
- Q410.5Dylan Cardwell misses 6-foot tip shot139–115
- Q411.1Dylan Cardwell offensive rebound139–115
- Q412.5Cameron Payne blocks Killian Hayes 's 15-foot driving floating jump shot139–115
- Q419.0Dylan Cardwell offensive rebound139–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:33Doug McDermott makes 25-foot running jump shot (Killian Hayes assists)PHI 49 – 48 SAC · SAC 34% → 42% +7SAC 34% → 42%+7 pts
- Q21:41Russell Westbrook makes 30-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)PHI 62 – 61 SAC · SAC 34% → 42% +8SAC 34% → 42%+8 pts
- Q21:10Quentin Grimes makes 28-foot three point jumper (VJ Edgecombe assists)PHI 67 – 61 SAC · PHI 64% → 71% +8PHI 64% → 71%+8 pts
- Q311:03Quentin Grimes makes 26-foot three point jumper (VJ Edgecombe assists)PHI 74 – 67 SAC · PHI 67% → 74% +8PHI 67% → 74%+8 pts
- Q39:42Quentin Grimes makes 27-foot three point jumper (VJ Edgecombe assists)PHI 79 – 73 SAC · PHI 64% → 72% +8PHI 64% → 72%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -2.5
- ML PHI -148 / SAC +124
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- PHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 49.7%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -134
- SAC +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 115.5 – 113.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1390 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −102 | −19 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Missing Devin Carter −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +2 Elo | SAC 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 110.729th of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.1 | Points allowed | 120.728th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −10.029th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 108.528th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 118.328th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.5 | Pace | 101.417th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 13th of 3017–16 | Road vs home | 12–2427th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15113rd of 30 |
| 18th of 301507 | Elo rating | 139023rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−102 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−19 Elo- Devin Carter right calf contusion−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–32 | 29–41 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–15 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 16–17 | 25–37 |
| Overs–unders | 35–34 | 34–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–2 SAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.