San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints18
- Stephon CastleAssists12
- Luke KornetRebounds10
Kings- Maxime RaynaudPoints32
- Russell WestbrookAssists10
- Maxime RaynaudRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–104
- Q414.6Dylan Cardwell makes 12-foot floating jump shot (Maxime Raynaud assists)132–104
- Q430.0Lindy Waters III makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan McLaughlin assists)132–102
- Q443.5Nique Clifford makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dylan Cardwell assists)129–102
- Q457.8Doug McDermott defensive rebound129–99
- Q41:00Carter Bryant misses 25-foot three point jumper129–99
- Q41:16Maxime Raynaud makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Nique Clifford assists)129–99
- Q41:27Maxime Raynaud defensive rebound129–97
- Q41:30Jordan McLaughlin misses 17-foot step back jumpshot129–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:49Harrison Barnes makes driving layup (Julian Champagnie assists)SA 4 – 2 SAC · SA 85% → 88% +2SA 85% → 88%+2 pts
- Q110:27Maxime Raynaud makes 10-foot floating jump shot (Russell Westbrook assists)SA 4 – 4 SAC · SAC 12% → 15% +2SAC 12% → 15%+2 pts
- Q19:43Stephon Castle makes 27-foot three point jumper (Harrison Barnes assists)SA 7 – 4 SAC · SA 85% → 89% +3SA 85% → 89%+3 pts
- Q18:57Harrison Barnes makes 23-foot running jump shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 10 – 4 SAC · SA 88% → 91% +3SA 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q17:46Julian Champagnie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Victor Wembanyama assists)SA 13 – 4 SAC · SA 91% → 93% +2SA 91% → 93%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- SA -13.5
- ML SA -850 / SAC +575
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -10
- SA 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- SA: Elo 83.4%, market 85.8%
- Fair odds
- SA -604
- SAC +604 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 123.5 – 110.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1653 | 1395 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +61 | −38 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Missing Malik Monk −7, Devin Carter −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +281 Elo | SA 83.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 86.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 86.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 85.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30118.8 | Points scored | 110.829th of 30 |
| 8th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 120.628th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.7 | Margin | −9.729th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.4 | Offense rating | 108.628th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.8 | Defense rating | 118.228th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.8 | Pace | 101.516th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3023–11 | Road vs home | 12–2327th of 30 |
| 4th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15086th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301653 | Elo rating | 139523rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+61 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−38 Elo- Malik Monk sprained right ankle−7 Elo
- Devin Carter right calf contusion−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–29 | 29–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–23 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 25–36 |
| Overs–unders | 29–40 | 33–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 4–5 SAC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Feb 21SAC 122 @ SA 139Picked SA 91%Hit
- Nov 16SAC 110 @ SA 123Picked SA 68%Hit
- Mar 7SA 109 @ SAC 127Picked SAC 68%Hit
- Dec 6SAC 140 @ SA 113Picked SAC 69%Hit
- Dec 1SA 127 @ SAC 125Picked SAC 68%Miss
- Nov 11SAC 96 @ SA 116Picked SAC 57%Miss
- Mar 7SA 129 @ SAC 131Picked SAC 73%Hit
- Feb 22SA 122 @ SAC 127Picked SAC 73%Hit